Spatial Distribution and Trend Analysis of Current Status of COVID-19 in Nepal and Global Future Preventive Perspectives

Abstract Background: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a recently discovered severe and contagious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and has received worldwide attention. The risk of COVID-19 is serious for the infected persons of chronic diseases as well as vulnerable populations including elder group. Still, the present scenario of scarcity of effective treatment options and limited recovery rate of ongoing treatment are prevailed in Nepal. This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution and trends of COVID-19 with the help of geographic information system (GIS) software and outlook future preventive perspectives.Methods: In this research work, we used GIS tool ArcGIS 10.4.1 to map the distribution patterns of population of COVID-19 cases. Federal, provincial and district level daily cases data of COVID-19 confirmed, cured and death from 23rd January to 13th July 2020 were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Population (MoHP), Government of Nepal. In addition, we reviewed several peer-reviewed research papers to summarize the global scenarios and preventive perspectives on COVID-19.Results: In context to Nepal SARS-CoV-2 has spread throughout the country infecting 16,945 persons in all 77 districts, as of 13th July, 2020. Confirmed, cured and death cases experienced an upward trend up to 1st July, 2020 followed by downward trend as of 13th July, 2020. Over 70% of total confirmed cases of reported COVID-19 patients were from the lowland-plain area. Spatial clustering suggested that provinces 2 and 5 were at potentially increased risk of COVID-19, and Province 1 and Bagmati province could be grouped as future "hot spots". In addition, we proposed four strategies namely, identification of the key medical and social elements, discovery and development of treatment options for a future pandemic, investing in ethno-medicine research and epidemic preparedness of health care system to decrease the efficacy of calamities of future pandemics.Conclusion: Our study demonstrates one of the best ways to protect; control and sluggish transmission of SARS-CoV-2 could be achieved by monitoring active ties using GIS spatial analysis. And, the severity of future pandemic could be minimized by integrative action on the abovementioned four different preventive master plans.