Comparative Analysis of Levelized Cost of Heat in Implemented and Calculated Heat Supply Systems with Heat Pumps in Ukraine

The adoption of heat pumps in Ukraine is increasing, yet precise data on their economic viability is limited. This study compares the Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH) in implemented and calculated heat pump systems under Ukrainian conditions. By analyzing real installations and theoretical projects, we assess ground-source and air-source heat pumps, focusing on technical indicators like the Seasonal Coefficient of Performance (SCOP) and economic factors such as investment costs and discount rates. Findings reveal that promotional materials often underestimate costs, leading to significant discrepancies in LCOH. Implemented ground-source heat pump projects have investment costs constituting 20–40% of LCOH, while for air-source heat pumps it's 60–65%. The discount rate significantly impacts LCOH, more than electricity costs. Air-source heat pumps in large buildings offer the lowest LCOH, whereas ground-source heat pumps in small houses have higher LCOH due to substantial capital investments. The study concludes that while heat pump systems can enhance energy efficiency and reduce environmental impacts in Ukraine, their economic competitiveness hinges on accurate cost assessments and favorable economic conditions.