Increasing risk of heat stress at the Summer Olympics

Increasing risk of heat stress at the Summer Olympics | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Increasing risk of heat stress at the Summer Olympics Milena Raeber, Dervla Meegan-Kumar, Ollie Jay, Steven Davis, Jane Baldwin This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7313457/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Rising temperatures under climate change threaten athlete safety at the Summer Olympics due to increasing heat stress likelihoods. For outdoor sports, suspending activity (i.e. rescheduling or cancelling) is the only possible intervention for mitigating heat stress risk in excessively hot or humid conditions, presenting logistical challenges to organizers. We evaluate the event suspension probability of outdoor Summer Olympic sports in past and potential future host cities due to unsafe climatic conditions for the recent past (1983–2016) and future projected in 2050. Assuming that >50% event suspension probability is logistically prohibitive, the number of viable host cities decreases from 709 to 595 (16%) in 2050. Remaining viable hosts are more affluent, located at higher elevations and latitudes, or in the Southern Hemisphere. Our results highlight growing heat-related risks at athletic events and can inform planning and adaptation priorities for future Summer Olympics. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Health sciences/Health care/Public health Extreme Heat Summer Olympics Heat Stress Athletes Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7313457","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":498631635,"identity":"62dbd852-2bf9-4799-b9bb-be34d262634b","order_by":0,"name":"Milena Raeber","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAo0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJACZiCWMwCxeEjRYky6lsQNRGvRnX344eOCinvp2yUSGB+8bSNCi9m5NGPjGWeKc3fOSGA2nEuUljMMZtK8bQm5G24ksAEZRGlh//6b919CusGNBPbfRGrhMWPmbUhIAGphYyZWS7H0jGMJhjt7HjZLzjlHnMM2fi6oSZA3Z08++OFNGRFakABjA2nqR8EoGAWjYBTgBgC2QDPAaLQpqQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9893-7058","institution":"Boston University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Milena","middleName":"","lastName":"Raeber","suffix":""},{"id":498631636,"identity":"a206881a-d494-4527-97b9-16bfe7502d08","order_by":1,"name":"Dervla Meegan-Kumar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of California, Irvine","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dervla","middleName":"","lastName":"Meegan-Kumar","suffix":""},{"id":498631637,"identity":"af2b26bc-51cd-4f88-8f3e-541f3871ed16","order_by":2,"name":"Ollie Jay","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Sydney","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ollie","middleName":"","lastName":"Jay","suffix":""},{"id":498631638,"identity":"23fc149f-6c0c-4807-8a6f-4f6bcbe721d8","order_by":3,"name":"Steven Davis","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9338-0844","institution":"Stanford University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Steven","middleName":"","lastName":"Davis","suffix":""},{"id":498631639,"identity":"bd4d1528-d05c-4bc3-a087-e0365c26ca68","order_by":4,"name":"Jane Baldwin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of California, Irvine","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jane","middleName":"","lastName":"Baldwin","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-07 00:30:18","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7313457/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7313457/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":89258183,"identity":"a4e5f6ff-cf7b-4183-819b-94b159bc98a5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-18 06:19:54","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":7390621,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"olympicsheatstressmanuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7313457/v1_covered_59b319e1-9f3d-40ea-b468-1d42a5eb5884.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Increasing risk of heat stress at the Summer Olympics","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Extreme Heat, Summer Olympics, Heat Stress, Athletes","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7313457/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7313457/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Rising temperatures under climate change threaten athlete safety at the Summer Olympics due to increasing heat stress likelihoods. For outdoor sports, suspending activity (i.e. rescheduling or cancelling) is the only possible intervention for mitigating heat stress risk in excessively hot or humid conditions, presenting logistical challenges to organizers. We evaluate the event suspension probability of outdoor Summer Olympic sports in past and potential future host cities due to unsafe climatic conditions for the recent past (1983–2016) and future projected in 2050. Assuming that \u003e50% event suspension probability is logistically prohibitive, the number of viable host cities decreases from 709 to 595 (16%) in 2050. Remaining viable hosts are more affluent, located at higher elevations and latitudes, or in the Southern Hemisphere. 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