EV lock-in erodes the resilience of China’s battery value chain

EV lock-in erodes the resilience of China’s battery value chain | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article EV lock-in erodes the resilience of China’s battery value chain Haoran Zhang, Muze Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9235117/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Batteries underpin the energy transition, yet China’s EV market is slowing and increasingly volatile, raising concerns that shocks may spread across the battery value chain. Prior studies emphasize capacity scale or static chain mapping, offering limited evidence on nonlinear propagation and resilience limits. We compile 1.1 million interfirm transaction records to build a China Battery Value Chain Network covering 108 industries. We demonstrate a pronounced EV-locked configuration that concentrates demand absorption and forms a single-trunk topology for shock transmission. Further stress tests reveal a nonlinear survival threshold, where an 80 percent demand shock can drive output below a safety floor and sharply amplify cumulative losses and recovery delays under high EV dependence. We further find that circularity strengthens resilience only when it shifts flows to independent sinks such as grid-side storage. The implication is that battery value chain security must be engineered through demand diversification and pathway rewiring to keep the system away from tipping points, rather than pursued through expansion alone. Physical sciences/Energy science and technology Scientific community and society/Energy and society Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementaryinformation.docx Supplementary information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9235117","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":623601714,"identity":"2ca86496-6ffb-495b-bee8-0a5739c19a9b","order_by":0,"name":"Haoran Zhang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAwYGNhAtx8ADothI0GJMupbEBqK1mDOwP3vwc0dt+naeMwYMH8oOM/DPbsCvxbKBId2w98zx3J29PQaMM84dZpC4c4CAww4wHJPgbTuWu+E8jwEzb9thBgOJBEJaGNsk/7YdSzcAaflLnBZmNmnetpoEg7M9BsyMRGk5zMYmLdt2wHBnz7GCgz3n0nkkbhDScrz9meTbtjp5c57kjQ9+lFnL8c8goIWBGUweBkUQwwEg5iGgHg7qwFpGwSgYBaNgFGAFAFA+QGqLiTkbAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4641-0641","institution":"Peking University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Haoran","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":623601715,"identity":"373a39ad-822e-4ce2-be98-c4d6b7b40d64","order_by":1,"name":"Muze Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Peking University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Muze","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-26 14:05:53","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9235117/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9235117/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107038024,"identity":"ea8c8585-1355-45bc-adc1-b0bb4b9f6464","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-16 05:11:24","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":708388,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9235117/v1_covered_ed4783dd-70b9-4518-8ec1-0b8ca46e6e5e.pdf"},{"id":107038004,"identity":"5a65ffac-9d21-4ab8-8b81-a51652dc3d53","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-16 05:11:14","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":203614,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary information","description":"","filename":"Supplementaryinformation.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9235117/v1/f25469679112d1b6551f80a8.docx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"EV lock-in erodes the resilience of China’s battery value \r\nchain","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9235117/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9235117/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Batteries underpin the energy transition, yet China’s EV market is slowing and increasingly volatile, raising concerns that shocks may spread across the battery value chain. 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