Technological Phases of Quantum Technologies Driving Long-Term Development

Abstract The goal of this study is to develop a technology analysis for examining the evolutionary phases of some critical quantum technologies to explain on-going technological development. Method applies S-shaped model based on logistic function that is estimated with patent data to analyze the phases of quantum technologies over the course of their technological evolution. Findings reveal that the technological cycle of recent quantum technologies has a shorter period in emergence phase and a longer period in growth and maturity phases than older quantum technologies. In particular, structure of technological cycle also shows that for quantum technologies originated after 1980, technological phase of emergence (to reach to the point of growth) is reduced to 52% of the total length of the cycle, compared to 68% of technologies originated before 1980, whereas the growth and maturity phases for technologies originated after 1980 have a higher percentage weight on the total duration of the cycle than technologies originated before 1980: growth stage is 22.78% of total duration of cycle in new technologies originated after 1980 vs. 15.76% in older technologies originated before the 1980; maturity stage is 25.32% vs. 16.08%, respectively of total technological cycle. Results here can provide theoretical implications to explain dynamics and structure of the technological evolution of emerging quantum innovations that support the technological forecasting for improving decisions of R&D investments in specific technologies that can be major sources of next technological, industrial, economic and social change.