Spatiotemporal characteristics of terrorist activities in 56 countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and their impact on China's export trade: An analysis of inhibition and transfer

Spatiotemporal characteristics of terrorist activities in 56 countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and their impact on China's export trade: An analysis of inhibition and transfer | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Spatiotemporal characteristics of terrorist activities in 56 countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and their impact on China's export trade: An analysis of inhibition and transfer Zichun Pan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8406193/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper quantitatively analyzes the influence of terrorist activities in importing nations on China's export trade, utilizing export trade data between China and 56 countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2002 to 2021, while also depicting the spatial and temporal evolution of terrorist activities in these nations. The analysis reveals that the terrorist activities in importing nations exhibit considerable diversity and severity, with countries experiencing more fatalities predominantly situated in West Asia and South Asia, whilst those with fewer fatalities are primarily found in Central and Eastern Europe, East Asia, and Central Asia. The distribution of terrorist activities along the route exhibits a westward trend in its center of gravity, revealing spatial interdependence and differentiation. High-high agglomeration areas are concentrated in West Asia, while the low-low agglomeration areas are found in Central and Eastern Europe. The finding that terrorist activities in importing nations impede China's export trade remains significant even after sample adjustments and the introduction of instrumental variables. This inhibition predominantly occurs in Islamic countries and middle- to high-income nations, with a more pronounced effect on China's export trade when terrorist activities target private individuals and their property. Following the terrorist activities in the importing nations, China's export trade will pivot towardscountries with a closer institutional proximity to the sites of the incidents, rather than those with closer physical or cultural proximity. This paper contends that the adverse effects of terrorist activities on China's export trade should be alleviated through effective prediction and assessment of such activities in their initial stages, the objective identification of their varied impacts across different regions, and the enhancement of crisis management capabilities. Terrorist Activities Export Trade Silk Road Economic Belt Spatial Effects Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8406193","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":570435119,"identity":"621076a2-0890-4aeb-9bd2-7c58e1fdd45d","order_by":0,"name":"Zichun 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transfer","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Terrorist Activities, Export Trade, Silk Road Economic Belt, Spatial 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The analysis reveals that the terrorist activities in importing nations exhibit considerable diversity and severity, with countries experiencing more fatalities predominantly situated in West Asia and South Asia, whilst those with fewer fatalities are primarily found in Central and Eastern Europe, East Asia, and Central Asia. The distribution of terrorist activities along the route exhibits a westward trend in its center of gravity, revealing spatial interdependence and differentiation. High-high agglomeration areas are concentrated in West Asia, while the low-low agglomeration areas are found in Central and Eastern Europe. The finding that terrorist activities in importing nations impede China's export trade remains significant even after sample adjustments and the introduction of instrumental variables. 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