Infrastructure exposure to wildfire in England is dominated by small, intensifying, peri-urban fires

Infrastructure exposure to wildfire in England is dominated by small, intensifying, peri-urban fires | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Analysis Infrastructure exposure to wildfire in England is dominated by small, intensifying, peri-urban fires Joseph Preece, Kerryn Little, Emma Ferranti, Nicholas Kettridge, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7159451/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Wildfire is an emerging threat to infrastructure in the United Kingdom (UK); yet current risk assessments often overlook the role of small, peri-urban wildfires. We present a scalable, data-driven methodology that integrates administrative recorded fires (ARFs) (recorded by local fire services), satellite-derived wildfire data, and empirically validated fire behaviour models to quantify infrastructure exposure across England for the power, rail, and road networks. Our analysis reveals that 99.91% of recorded wildfires are ARFs, which – despite their smaller sizes – intersect infrastructure corridors far more frequently than larger, rural wildfires. These smaller fires are projected to intensify most rapidly under projected future climate scenarios, particularly in peri-urban zones dominated by arable land and improved grassland. By modelling changes in flame length, rate of spread, and fireline intensity across increasingly severe climate scenarios, we demonstrate that infrastructure exposure is significantly underestimated when relying on satellite data alone. Our findings underscore the need for high-resolution fire data and behaviour modelling to inform climate-resilient infrastructure planning. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7159451","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Analysis","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":496217212,"identity":"5e79a89a-e5a6-4338-b0e8-3b1e34534e1d","order_by":0,"name":"Joseph Preece","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA40lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYGAyiT+RgzkihRWtjSiNMCBDAtPGbEaWFuYN7AXLjHRo6/vefb44KabQz87QfYJGfgdRhbAfOMZ2nGEmfObjeecew2g8SZBDbJDXi18Bgw8xw4nLhBInebNA/bbQaGGwxskg8Ia/lfv0H+zTNpnn+3GeSJ1HIgwUCCh02at+02gwFIC16HNbMVHJ5xINlwxpk0c2Pevts8hmcSmy3xed+wvXnj44IDdvL87YefPeb5dltO7vjhgzd78GlpZmA4jCzAQzAi5YGYGa+KUTAKRsEoGAUAqJFI95ilgLgAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1854-3578","institution":"University of Birmingham","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Joseph","middleName":"","lastName":"Preece","suffix":""},{"id":496217213,"identity":"f703b60e-1745-4b1f-a5de-d0035a676e43","order_by":1,"name":"Kerryn Little","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Birmingham","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kerryn","middleName":"","lastName":"Little","suffix":""},{"id":496217214,"identity":"6bd2c65f-6e88-41b3-ad5a-ae46d4e6d706","order_by":2,"name":"Emma Ferranti","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0494-5349","institution":"University of Birmingham","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Emma","middleName":"","lastName":"Ferranti","suffix":""},{"id":496217215,"identity":"fbd7abc6-f08b-4723-807b-b58310575118","order_by":3,"name":"Nicholas Kettridge","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Birmingham","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nicholas","middleName":"","lastName":"Kettridge","suffix":""},{"id":496217216,"identity":"e39efbf5-17c3-4406-9614-a5b13cb94970","order_by":4,"name":"Daniel Donaldson","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Birmingham","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daniel","middleName":"","lastName":"Donaldson","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-18 16:25:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7159451/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7159451/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91043306,"identity":"6d67ef3e-a682-495e-8cd3-392bc55369f4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-11 04:46:52","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":12624390,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"NatureClimateChangeSubmission.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7159451/v1_covered_f011fa10-1796-460a-bc6b-c92c8e6dc886.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Infrastructure exposure to wildfire in England is dominated by small, intensifying, peri-urban fires","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7159451/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7159451/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Wildfire is an emerging threat to infrastructure in the United Kingdom (UK); yet current risk assessments often overlook the role of small, peri-urban wildfires. 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