Optimal Fingerprints for Decoupling Atlantic Overturning and Subpolar Gyre

Optimal Fingerprints for Decoupling Atlantic Overturning and Subpolar Gyre | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Optimal Fingerprints for Decoupling Atlantic Overturning and Subpolar Gyre Bahar Emirzade, Jade Ajagun-Brauns, Maya Ben-Yami, Sebastian Bathiany, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7073175/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Subpolar Gyre (SPG) are key components of the Earth's climate system, both potentially prone to abrupt shifts under anthropogenic forcing. In the absence of long-term direct observations, several observation-based fingerprints of the AMOC have been proposed to study its response to anthropogenic forcing. However, traditional AMOC fingerprints do not separate the two different Atlantic ocean circulation systems, but rather represent an opaque mixture of both and other effects, causing concern regarding their representativeness of the underlying AMOC dynamics. Here, we assess the performance of the most widely used AMOC fingerprints across CMIP6 models and contrast them with statistically optimal fingerprints that we derive from sea surface temperature and salinity data. We show that traditional AMOC fingerprints perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability and show weak correlations with both AMOC and SPG strength. Our statistically optimal fingerprints, trained on pre-industrial control (piControl) simulations, consistently outperform AMOC fingerprints from the literature in both unseen parts of piControl and historical simulations across all models. Our fingerprints accurately reconstruct AMOC and SPG signals with minimal overlap, offering a clear separation between the two systems. Our results thus give the first reliable, tailored fingerprints of both AMOC and SPG, and highlight the potential of optimized data-driven fingerprints for analyzing these two key Atlantic ocean circulation components, including improved detection of potential AMOC or SPG shifts. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7073175","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":485328743,"identity":"e9abc98f-e3f7-4c16-8cad-eab9540273df","order_by":0,"name":"Bahar Emirzade","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA50lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAwYeCIMNRPAw2IA5EqRoSZMgXgsDRMthwlrM2c8e/FzBYBPNJ3384Yc3FefrDK4dYLzxAY8Wy568ZMkzDGm5bXwJyZJzztyWMLidwGw5A5/DDuQYSDYwHM5t42E4IM3bBtbCJs2DT8v5N8Y/Gxj+A7UwNv/m/XcOouUPPi03csyAthwAamFmk+ZtOADRgs/7ljPemFk2GCQDtbCxWc45liw583Zis2UPHi3m/DnGNxsq7HLn97A/vvGmxo6f73bywRs/8FkDcR4Kj7GBoIZRMApGwSgYBfgBALG1SXwDL15UAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Technical University of Munich","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bahar","middleName":"","lastName":"Emirzade","suffix":""},{"id":485328744,"identity":"9aef7eb4-2900-42ab-baef-098168122add","order_by":1,"name":"Jade Ajagun-Brauns","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Copenhagen","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jade","middleName":"","lastName":"Ajagun-Brauns","suffix":""},{"id":485328745,"identity":"0ffc04b8-8483-4522-9dbf-fe83a465a915","order_by":2,"name":"Maya Ben-Yami","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7355-8318","institution":"Technical University of Munich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Maya","middleName":"","lastName":"Ben-Yami","suffix":""},{"id":485328746,"identity":"111c1667-c480-4aad-a317-4f3f3e7e1611","order_by":3,"name":"Sebastian Bathiany","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9904-1619","institution":"Technical University Munich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sebastian","middleName":"","lastName":"Bathiany","suffix":""},{"id":485328747,"identity":"bbf463d7-1c80-44e5-a850-260b19db173d","order_by":4,"name":"Yechul Shin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Seoul National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yechul","middleName":"","lastName":"Shin","suffix":""},{"id":485328748,"identity":"414806f1-80c6-4219-9249-48976b46cc28","order_by":5,"name":"Niklas Boers","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"TUM Munich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Niklas","middleName":"","lastName":"Boers","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-08 09:31:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7073175/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7073175/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":87249941,"identity":"f92ded11-b165-4578-9eb4-084f870acbe4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-22 04:09:17","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":8295552,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"OptimalFingerprintsforDecouplingAtlanticOverturningandSubpolarGyre.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7073175/v1_covered_a30e010f-34ca-4dc8-bb6c-e49ccf09dbd2.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Optimal Fingerprints for Decoupling Atlantic Overturning and Subpolar Gyre","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7073175/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7073175/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Subpolar Gyre (SPG) are key components of the Earth's climate system, both potentially prone to abrupt shifts under anthropogenic forcing. In the absence of long-term direct observations, several observation-based fingerprints of the AMOC have been proposed to study its response to anthropogenic forcing. However, traditional AMOC fingerprints do not separate the two different Atlantic ocean circulation systems, but rather represent an opaque mixture of both and other effects, causing concern regarding their representativeness of the underlying AMOC dynamics. \r\nHere, we assess the performance of the most widely used AMOC fingerprints across CMIP6 models and contrast them with statistically optimal fingerprints that we derive from sea surface temperature and salinity data. We show that traditional AMOC fingerprints perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability and show weak correlations with both AMOC and SPG strength. Our statistically optimal fingerprints, trained on pre-industrial control (piControl) simulations, consistently outperform AMOC fingerprints from the literature in both unseen parts of piControl and historical simulations across all models. Our fingerprints accurately reconstruct AMOC and SPG signals with minimal overlap, offering a clear separation between the two systems. Our results thus give the first reliable, tailored fingerprints of both AMOC and SPG, and highlight the potential of optimized data-driven fingerprints for analyzing these two key Atlantic ocean circulation components, including improved detection of potential AMOC or SPG shifts.","manuscriptTitle":"Optimal Fingerprints for Decoupling Atlantic Overturning and Subpolar Gyre","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-07-22 04:01:03","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7073175/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-communications","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"NCOMMS","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/","title":"Nature Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Communications","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"a646cd27-0f88-4399-a04f-ffada7f78ffb","owner":[],"postedDate":"July 22nd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":51521753,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction"},{"id":51521754,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-11T08:45:31+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-07-22 04:01:03","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7073175","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7073175","identity":"rs-7073175","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}