Business As Usual Versus Climate-responsive, Optimised Crop Plans - A Predictive Model for Irrigated Agriculture in Australia in 2060

Abstract Climate change is impacting people's lives, with management of water resources and food security being major concerns for the future of many countries. In this paper, future water availability, crop water needs, yields, market costs and returns of current crops in a case study area in Australia is evaluated under future climatic conditions. The predictive methods on which the work is based have the advantage of being robust---they able to simultaneously consider many climate change models---giving greater confidence in determining what the future will hold in this regard. The results indicate business as usual, in terms of the quantity and types of crops that can be grown presently, will not be sustainable in the medium and long term future. Instead, modelling indicates that changes in production and land use to maximise revenue per megalitre of water will be needed to adapt to future conditions and deliver climate-smart agriculture.