Comparing Fertility-Promoting Policies under Household Heterogeneity, Redistribution and General Equilibrium Effects

Comparing Fertility-Promoting Policies under Household Heterogeneity, Redistribution and General Equilibrium Effects | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Comparing Fertility-Promoting Policies under Household Heterogeneity, Redistribution and General Equilibrium Effects Zixiao Yang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6824919/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the effects of three standard fertility-promoting policies: (i) transfer payment, (ii) paid maternity leave, and (iii) public childcare service. The evaluation is based on fertility promotion and welfare loss. To introduce heterogeneity, we assume two types of households: the first type has lower productivity and likes children relative to consumption more than the second type does. Heterogeneity, redistribution, and general equilibrium effects are the primary factors influencing policy outcomes. Heterogeneity causes the decisions of the two household types to interact, altering convergence paths and extending the time required for convergence. Moreover, heterogeneity is a critical factor making public childcare service more beneficial for the second type. Redistribution consistently benefits the first type more under any policy, particularly under the transfer payment. General equilibrium effects slightly weaken the fertility-promoting impact of policies and increase welfare losses, a conclusion that holds uniformly across all policies and households. JEL Classification: H31, I38, J11, J13 Fertility Policies Policy Simulation Heterogeneous household Transfer payment Paid leave Public childcare Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6824919","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":469545300,"identity":"b38a03f7-2824-4b1e-919e-2cfc7d9e786d","order_by":0,"name":"Zixiao Yang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPACCQY2BgbGBwwMB6ACPMRpYTYgRQsYsEkgtOABBsfPHn7B8McisY/98LFqnpo7cvwMzA8fMMjcwa3lTF6aBQOPhDEbT1rabZ5jz4wlG9iMDRh4nuHWciDHzIBBQkKOjSHH7DYP2+HEDQd4gC7kOYxby/k3QC0GEjxs/G/Minn+EaPlRo7xA4YEoC0SOWbMvG1EaJG88cYMGE5Av0g8S5ac23fYWLIZ6JcEPH7hO59j/IHhT13i/P7kgx/efDssx8/e/PDBxx7cIaZwgIFN+g+UwwSOQGYgTuw5gFOLfAMD8wcYh/EHXPwHbi2jYBSMglEw4gAAzStP0zm/gycAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Hokkaido University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zixiao","middleName":"","lastName":"Yang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-05 03:53:16","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6824919/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6824919/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":97094452,"identity":"57ebc9e7-c5b8-4043-a9cf-67ef42a56536","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-30 21:53:38","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":419230,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ComparingFertilityPromotingPoliciesunderHouseholdHeterogeneityRedistributionandGeneralEquilibriumEffects.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6824919/v1_covered_2cac663a-ac0b-49d3-9d13-d5f2fb90ab0e.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Comparing Fertility-Promoting Policies under Household Heterogeneity, Redistribution and General Equilibrium Effects","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Fertility Policies, Policy Simulation, Heterogeneous household, Transfer payment, Paid leave, Public childcare","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6824919/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6824919/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eWe construct a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the effects of three standard fertility-promoting policies: (i) transfer payment, (ii) paid maternity leave, and (iii) public childcare service. The evaluation is based on fertility promotion and welfare loss. To introduce heterogeneity, we assume two types of households: the first type has lower productivity and likes children relative to consumption more than the second type does. Heterogeneity, redistribution, and general equilibrium effects are the primary factors influencing policy outcomes. Heterogeneity causes the decisions of the two household types to interact, altering convergence paths and extending the time required for convergence. Moreover, heterogeneity is a critical factor making public childcare service more beneficial for the second type. Redistribution consistently benefits the first type more under any policy, particularly under the transfer payment. General equilibrium effects slightly weaken the fertility-promoting impact of policies and increase welfare losses, a conclusion that holds uniformly across all policies and households.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eJEL Classification: H31, I38, J11, J13\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Comparing Fertility-Promoting Policies under Household Heterogeneity, Redistribution and General Equilibrium Effects","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-13 17:21:11","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6824919/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"852577f5-2d79-4b53-b5a6-ff5d84a82d80","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 13th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-30T21:53:13+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-13 17:21:11","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6824919","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6824919","identity":"rs-6824919","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}