The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Life Expectancy in the US: An Application of Hybrid Life Expectancy

Life expectancy at birth (both sexes) in the US was 1.9 years lower in 2020 than in 2019. This reduction has been widely discussed. This 1.9 year reduction compares a group of people who would live their entire lives at the 2019 survival rates with a group that would live their entire lives experiencing the pandemic survival rates of 2020. Here we introduce hybrid life expectancy. This is the life expectancy of people who experience the 2020 survival rates for various shorter periods followed by a return to the 2019 levels. For pandemic durations of 10 years or less life expectancy at birth does not fall from its 2019 level. For a pandemic duration of 10 years, the life expectancy of 65 year-olds would fall by 0.2 years.