Cities as stepping stones for climate-driven tree species range shifts

Cities as stepping stones for climate-driven tree species range shifts | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Cities as stepping stones for climate-driven tree species range shifts Stef Haesen, Marijke Geuskens, Senne Spreij, Willem Goossens, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7184218/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 6 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract As climate change accelerates, many tree species fail to track shifting climatic conditions. Assisted migration - the human-driven relocation of species beyond their natural range - has emerged as a controversial yet potentially useful strategy. Cities often host non-native tree species and thus already function as informal platforms of assisted migration. Using species distribution models, we assessed future climate suitability across Europe for 96 tree species introduced in urban areas. Results show that urban plantings extended species’ ranges by over 650 km northward, surpassing what would be possible through natural migration alone. In several cases, urban populations are already near or within future suitable habitats, reducing the required migration distance by up to 40-fold. These findings highlight the potential of cities to act as stepping stones for range expansion and testbeds for assisted migration, and show that, with ecological oversight, cities could support targeted introductions and conservation under climate change. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Biological sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology assisted colonization assisted migration cities climate change species redistributions translocation trees Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Haesennpjsupplementary.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 15 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Aug, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 24 Aug, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 31 Jul, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 29 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 22 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7184218","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":589409577,"identity":"7ed63b90-81e1-4d60-8d5c-4a2d3f402aca","order_by":0,"name":"Stef 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