Trans Gangetic Plains of India: Understanding Maximum Temperatures Trends across Seasons and Methods

Trans Gangetic Plains of India: Understanding Maximum Temperatures Trends across Seasons and Methods | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Trans Gangetic Plains of India: Understanding Maximum Temperatures Trends across Seasons and Methods Ayushi Niranjan, Anand Madhukar This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5247939/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Jun, 2025 Read the published version in Acta Geophysica → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change and maximum temperature rise affect various aspects of human life, including agricultural production. The paper evaluates the variability in maximum temperatures across 47 districts of the Trans-Gangetic Plains, a pivotal Agro-Climatic Zone in India, over 1901- 2021. It investigates annual as well as seasonal, i.e., summer, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter seasons maximum temperatures by employing four distinct methods: Mann Kendall (MK) Test, Modified Mann Kendall (MMK) Test, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), and the Simple Linear Regression (SLR) Model. We found a significant rise in annual maximum temperatures across Trans-Gangetic Plains, ranging from 0.002°C to 0.053°C per decade over 1901-2021. The last three decades (1991-2021) have had more pronounced maximum temperature trends than previous decades. Further, three seasons, i.e., summer, post-monsoon, and winter, demonstrate rising maximum temperatures with the highest rise witnessed in winter season (0.044°C to 0.099°C per decade). However, monsoon season show declining maximum temperature trends across all 47 districts, ranging between –0.016°C to –0.067°C per decade. Further, ITA captures more significant trends than MK, MMK, and SLR. The results advance the understanding on maximum temperatures’ variability using different methods, identify distinct patterns for 47 districts of Trans-Gangetic Plains, and thus demand a comprehensive Agro-Climatic Zone specific response plan, including adaptation and mitigation strategies, to address these changes. Climate Change Maximum Temperatures Trans-Gangetic Plains Agro-Climatic Zones India Full Text Supplementary Files SupplentaryInformation.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Jun, 2025 Read the published version in Acta Geophysica → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Accept 14 May, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Apr, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 04 Apr, 2025 First submitted to journal 03 Apr, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5247939","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":439101718,"identity":"8b126fd3-f4ef-4453-8f2c-bc4f5465fb80","order_by":0,"name":"Ayushi Niranjan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"TERI School of Advanced Studies","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ayushi","middleName":"","lastName":"Niranjan","suffix":""},{"id":439101719,"identity":"2e91b734-c51d-43b0-957c-3495f477b5b7","order_by":1,"name":"Anand Madhukar","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAyUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLAC3gYJHn4QI6GAeC0WMpINIC0GxGupsDE4AGIRo4V/dnfih7c7JHiMz69O/PDAgEGeX+wAfi0Sd85ulpx7RoLH7MbbzRJAhxnOnJ1AwJobuRukedtAWs5uAGlJMLhNQIv8jdzNv0FajGec3fyDKC0GN3K3gW0x4O/dRpwthkAtlnOBWiRu8G6zSDCQIOwXOaDDbrxtq7Pn7z+7+eaPCht5fmkCWhBAAqxSgljlIMB/gBTVo2AUjIJRMJIAAJMhRH3ALGzZAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"TERI School of Advanced Studies","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anand","middleName":"","lastName":"Madhukar","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-10-11 18:20:00","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5247939/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5247939/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-025-01627-0","type":"published","date":"2025-06-16T15:57:12+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":85231307,"identity":"18c3c3c6-c1cf-4e4e-b30a-412e3719b178","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-23 16:05:46","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1360116,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5247939/v1_covered_50bea81b-d7df-4d46-be0b-f30e23bf3845.pdf"},{"id":80250486,"identity":"2fd1f588-4108-43c4-af16-ee849060f6e1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-09 16:55:52","extension":"pdf","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":218289,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplentaryInformation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5247939/v1/9ab3812fd0b0368e9fd3f808.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Trans Gangetic Plains of India: Understanding Maximum Temperatures Trends across Seasons and Methods","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"acta-geophysica","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"agph","sideBox":"Learn more about [Acta Geophysica](http://link.springer.com/journal/11600)","snPcode":"11600","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/agph/default2.aspx","title":"Acta Geophysica","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Climate Change, Maximum Temperatures, Trans-Gangetic Plains, Agro-Climatic Zones, India","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5247939/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5247939/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Climate change and maximum temperature rise affect various aspects of human life, including agricultural production. 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