Frontier Technology readiness and its impact on environmental quality in Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States

Frontier Technology readiness and its impact on environmental quality in Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Frontier Technology readiness and its impact on environmental quality in Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States Mduduzi Biyase, Ashutosh Rai This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9360236/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 20 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates the dynamic relationship between Frontier Technology Readiness (FTR) and environmental degradation, proxied by the Ecological Footprint (EF), across seven highly interconnected Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) economies. Utilizing the UNCTAD Frontier Technology Readiness Index (FTRI), the research assesses how advanced technology capacity impacts sustainability in this resource-intensive geopolitical bloc. Employing the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with second-generation estimators, the core finding is that FTR significantly reduces the Ecological Footprint in the long run. This effect is highly robust, confirmed by Panel FMOLS and Panel DOLS, but the short-run impact is statistically insignificant, indicating environmental benefits accrue only over time. We also confirm that economic growth and mineral dependency increase the Ecological Footprint, while financial development and high population density provide long-term reductions. Although a stable long-run equilibrium exists, causality analysis reveals no direct Granger-causal link between FTR and EF, highlighting the complexity of their interaction. These findings attest to the necessity of fostering the sustained dissemination of frontier technologies to achieve long-term reduction targets. JEL classification : O3, O13 Frontier Technology Readiness Index Ecological Footprint SCO Panel DOLS Panel FMOLS Causality Tests Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 15 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 12 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 10 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 09 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 06 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 04 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 03 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 24 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 13 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 13 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 13 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9360236","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":634069717,"identity":"38fe9447-0174-47c8-b12d-4f679f7fa063","order_by":0,"name":"Mduduzi Biyase","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAxElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCcYGECXHwHCARC3GpGiBUIkNRLtLd3Zzm8SPPzbpGw4eYPzwg6FOnqAWszsH2yR729JyNxw4wCzZw8BmSNA6sxuJbRK8DYdBWhikGRh4GInSIvnnz/90A6Atv4FesydKizQP24EEoBY2oC0GhMMB6Jdma9m2ZMOZBw62WfYYJCQT1nK7/eHNN3/s5PluHD5840dFnS1BLUDAAokaiYNAxQZEqAcC5g9gip8Y40fBKBgFo2BEAgCFsUIfbA9f9gAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Johannesburg","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mduduzi","middleName":"","lastName":"Biyase","suffix":""},{"id":634069720,"identity":"ac7ff7a2-e1fe-4c62-9948-8afdf5639d93","order_by":1,"name":"Ashutosh Rai","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University School of Business, Chandigarh University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ashutosh","middleName":"","lastName":"Rai","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-08 18:23:24","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9360236/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9360236/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108497334,"identity":"2d035675-623c-46e6-b56a-373d941ed9f1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-05 10:13:19","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":531459,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"FrontierTechnologyReadinessasaDriverofEnvironmentalQualityAprilr.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9360236/v1_covered_6c9d7392-b60b-4422-9c08-53b81b9a79e9.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Frontier Technology readiness and its impact on environmental quality in Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-global-society","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Global Society](https://www.springer.com/journal/44282)","snPcode":"44282","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44282/3","title":"Discover Global Society","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Frontier Technology Readiness Index, Ecological Footprint, SCO, Panel DOLS, Panel FMOLS, Causality Tests","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9360236/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9360236/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study investigates the dynamic relationship between Frontier Technology Readiness (FTR) and environmental degradation, proxied by the Ecological Footprint (EF), across seven highly interconnected Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) economies. 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