Prediction of ALRTI caused by HRSV infection in Zhengzhou area in seasonal ARIMA model

Objective: The seasonal trend of ARIMA product was used to predict the incidence of HRSV infection in Zhengzhou area and to explore the application of the model in predicting the incidence rate of ALRTI caused by HRSV infection in ARIMA . Methods: Based on the time series construction model of ALRTI incidence rate from January 2018 to January 2020, the incidence rate of ALRTI caused by HRSV infection from January 2021 to January 2022 was verified by HRSV, and the results were validated. Results: Model of ALRTI (1,0,1) (0,1,1) 12 is the best model, with BIC = 8.319, Ljung-Box = 20.787, P = 0.160. The average relative error of predicted and actual values of ALRTI incidence rate from March 2021 to January 2022 is 339.33%, and the actual value is within 95% confidence interval of the predicted value. Conclusion: In predicting ALRTI caused by HRSV infection, ARIMA model can better predict the trend of incidence, and its effect needs to be further optimized.