El Niño–Southern Oscillation Impacts on Crop Productivity in Rajasthan, India: A District-Level Analysis from Monsoon Suppression to Yield Loss (1966–2017)

El Niño–Southern Oscillation Impacts on Crop Productivity in Rajasthan, India: A District-Level Analysis from Monsoon Suppression to Yield Loss (1966–2017) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article El Niño–Southern Oscillation Impacts on Crop Productivity in Rajasthan, India: A District-Level Analysis from Monsoon Suppression to Yield Loss (1966–2017) Priyanka Swami This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9712379/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Rajasthan's agriculture is uniquely exposed to monsoon failure. With the summer monsoon accounting for over 90 per cent of annual rainfall across most of the state and the Kharif season almost entirely rainfed, any large-scale suppression of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) translates quickly into crop loss. El Niño events are the single strongest predictor of such suppression at the interannual scale, yet their district-to-district impacts across this climatically diverse state and their downstream consequences for individual crop categories have not been systematically quantified. The present research address this using 52 years (1966–2017) of IMD gridded daily rainfall records for 33 districts and ICRISAT district-level crop data for 26 districts. The present analysis shows that strong El Niño events (Oceanic Niño Index ≥ 1.5) reduce state-average June–September rainfall by roughly 22–25% relative to the long-term mean. Crucially this suppression operates through amplitude reduction, not through any detectable shift in monsoon onset or withdrawal. The causal pathway runs directly from Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies to monsoon rainfall deficits and then to Kharif crop yield losses; Rabi crops, being largely irrigated, are substantially more resilient. Pearl millet grown on about 5 million ha under rainfed conditions emerges as the highest-risk staple crop in the state, with area, production and yield all contracting simultaneously in strong El Niño years. These findings have direct operational relevance: April-June ENSO outlooks can serve as quantitative triggers for district-level agricultural contingency planning in Rajasthan. Climatology Agroecology El Niño–Southern Oscillation Indian Summer Monsoon Rajasthan Kharif crops Rabi crops crop yield anomaly Pearl Millet food security ONI drought Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9712379","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":640197353,"identity":"691906d7-20b1-4a43-828c-c3d295e8a6ee","order_by":0,"name":"Priyanka Swami","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABBElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACxgYgkQDEPMwPEiqANDNzA9Fa2Aw+nAFpYSSkBQzAWhgkZ7bBDcENzKUPt0n83JEmr9t+9oAx77zaaP52oJYfFdtwarHsS2yT7D2TY7jtTF7CY95tx3NnHGZsYOw5cxunFoMzjG0SvG0VjNsO5BgY8247ltsA1MLM2IZfi+Tftgr7beffGEjzzjmWO58YLdK8bTmJ227kGEjObKjJ3UBIi2UPY7O1bFta8rYbb8wMPhw7kLsRqOUgPr+Y87A/vPm2Ldl22/kc4wcJNXW5884fPvjgRwUehzEwsEgg8Q+DyQM41UO0MH9A4tfhUzwKRsEoGAUjFAAAw5phMql3ufMAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Agricultute university Jodhpur","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Priyanka","middleName":"","lastName":"Swami","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-05-14 09:16:03","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9712379/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9712379/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":109298491,"identity":"3a832913-ddd0-40e0-87e7-5cd896ce46f0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-15 09:14:05","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":682702,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ResearchpaperelninocroprajasthanTACv2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9712379/v1_covered_e9ef08bd-6e9a-49d7-baa9-23b74d71590e.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eEl Niño–Southern Oscillation Impacts on Crop Productivity in Rajasthan, India: A District-Level Analysis from Monsoon Suppression to Yield Loss (1966–2017)\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Summer Monsoon, Rajasthan, Kharif crops, Rabi crops, crop yield anomaly, Pearl Millet, food security, ONI, drought","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9712379/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9712379/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eRajasthan's agriculture is uniquely exposed to monsoon failure. With the summer monsoon accounting for over 90 per cent of annual rainfall across most of the state and the Kharif season almost entirely rainfed, any large-scale suppression of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) translates quickly into crop loss. El Ni\u0026ntilde;o events are the single strongest predictor of such suppression at the interannual scale, yet their district-to-district impacts across this climatically diverse state and their downstream consequences for individual crop categories have not been systematically quantified. The present research address this using 52 years (1966\u0026ndash;2017) of IMD gridded daily rainfall records for 33 districts and ICRISAT district-level crop data for 26 districts.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe present analysis shows that strong El Ni\u0026ntilde;o events (Oceanic Ni\u0026ntilde;o Index\u0026thinsp;\u0026ge;\u0026thinsp;1.5) reduce state-average June\u0026ndash;September rainfall by roughly 22\u0026ndash;25% relative to the long-term mean. Crucially this suppression operates through amplitude reduction, not through any detectable shift in monsoon onset or withdrawal. The causal pathway runs directly from Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies to monsoon rainfall deficits and then to Kharif crop yield losses; Rabi crops, being largely irrigated, are substantially more resilient. Pearl millet grown on about 5\u0026nbsp;million ha under rainfed conditions emerges as the highest-risk staple crop in the state, with area, production and yield all contracting simultaneously in strong El Ni\u0026ntilde;o years. 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