Predicting Potential Habitats of the Endangered Suweon Treefrog (Dryophytes suweonensis) under Climate Change Scenarios Using an Ensemble Ecological Niche Model

Predicting Potential Habitats of the Endangered Suweon Treefrog (Dryophytes suweonensis) under Climate Change Scenarios Using an Ensemble Ecological Niche Model | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Predicting Potential Habitats of the Endangered Suweon Treefrog (Dryophytes suweonensis) under Climate Change Scenarios Using an Ensemble Ecological Niche Model Nakyung Yoo, Dae-Seong Lee, Jeongwoo Yoo, Kwan-Ik Kwon, Chang-Deuk Park, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8119070/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Amphibians are among the most threatened vertebrates, and the endangered Suweon treefrog ( Dryophytes suweonensis ), endemic to lowland rice paddies in South Korea, is particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and climate change. This study identifies environmental factors influencing the species' occurrence and projects its potential habitat under current and future climate conditions. Using occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, literature, and field surveys, we developed an ensemble ecological niche model combining Random Forest and MaxEnt. The model showed high predictive performance (mean AUROC = 0.956), with agricultural land area as the most important factor, followed by precipitation and elevation. Causal Forest and Ridge regression revealed that winter precipitation positively influenced occurrence, while excessive rainfall during breeding reduced habitat suitability. Projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios indicated significant habitat loss by 2050 and 2080, especially under high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Suitable habitats were predicted to remain only in limited lowland areas of Gyeonggi-do and Chungcheongnam-do. These findings emphasize the species’ dependence on rice-paddy ecosystems and highlight the need for proactive conservation strategies, such as wetland creation, hydrological management, and climate-adaptive planning, to ensure its survival. Biological sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Amphibians Endangered species Ecological niche model Ensemble model Climate change Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformationSI.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8119070","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":558870542,"identity":"329451fd-6e31-4ac6-a3b6-3aa53d9794ed","order_by":0,"name":"Nakyung Yoo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute of Ecology, Research Center for Endangered Species","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nakyung","middleName":"","lastName":"Yoo","suffix":""},{"id":558870543,"identity":"52ee61e4-df7b-446e-b1b0-a57441e04400","order_by":1,"name":"Dae-Seong Lee","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kyung Hee 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Model","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Amphibians, Endangered species, Ecological niche model, Ensemble model, Climate 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