A Study on the Development of Prediction Model for Fleet Capacity of Dynamic Positioning Vessel in Response to Offshore Wind Farm Growth-Up

To address global warming, there is a worldwide effort to establish carbon-neutral energy plans. Given the characteristics of renewable energy generation, a diverse 'Energy Mix' consisting of various energy sources such as wind and solar power is crucial. In particular, the wind power is expected to continue expanding globally due to its sustainable nature. Furthermore, the expan-sion of offshore wind farm is making essential and a rapidly growing industry sector to be achieving carbon neutrality with limited land for construction. To facilitate the construction and operation of offshore wind farms, specialized vessels with dynamic positioning (DP) systems are essential such as Wind Turbine Installation Vessels (WTIVs) and Service Operating Vessels (SOVs). The purpose of this study is to predict and analyze the scale and structural changes in the fleet capacity of DP vessel, which is essential for offshore wind power construction as the offshore wind power industry develops using System Dynamics (SD) modeling. Specifically, this study aims to construct a demand forecasting model for DP vessel used in offshore wind farm con-struction based on SD methodology. The study aims to identify influencing factors by analyzing dynamic changes in system configurations over time and establishing causal relationships based on feedback structures. Instead of traditional time series analysis methods, causal relation-ship-based simulations were conducted for quantitative analysis. The results provide insights into the changes in the DP vessel market structure due to the emergence of the new industry and highlight areas that require improvement throughout the industry.