Impact of rainfall variability on soybean yields in Southern Brazil

Impact of rainfall variability on soybean yields in Southern Brazil | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Impact of rainfall variability on soybean yields in Southern Brazil Felipe Gustavo Pilau, Fabio Ricardo Marin, Daniel Grubert, Genei Antonio Dalmago This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-160366/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract As the third soybean-producer state in Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul (RS) presents a known year-on-year unevenness for soybean production, mainly due to water availability. This study aimed to assess the weather effects, with special focus on rainfall during 25 soybean growing seasons and 11 producing regions around the State. Sites were divided into three Clusters according to soybean yield and the effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was considered in association with soil water balance. Neutral ENSO phases occurred in 32% of the years, while El Niño and La Ninã occurring in 36% and 32% of the years, respectively. Seasons under El Niño normally present higher accumulated rainfall, whereas those under La Niña present a reduction. Data from neutral-year sites of Clusters B and C seems to be more disturbed. No season had statistical difference of rainfall among Clusters under Neutral conditions. In addition, thermal gradient in RS from October to January benefited sites of Cluster A. Interaction of soils with higher water-storage capacity and cooler temperature reduces the water consumption by soybeans, causing lower values of water deficiency. A boundary function relating soybean yield and rainfall displays the limit of 800 mm for significant yield increments, and such amounts of rainfall were only achieved in El Niño seasons. The combined effect of rainfall and soil type on soybean yield, represented by the actual soybean yields-water deficit relationship, led to water propitiate from -3.7 to -15.2 kg mm-1 ha-1. Decision-making on public policies and investments on the soybean industry can be supported from our results, either to better planning the investments on the soybean farming systems depending on the ENSO phase predictions, either to reduce the production risks in the region inherent to local weather. Climatology soy bean yield rainfall soil type Brazil Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 11 Feb, 2021 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Feb, 2021 First submitted to journal 20 Jan, 2021 Editorial decision: Major Revisions Needed 15 Jan, 2019 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-160366","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":10783073,"identity":"1907955d-555a-44d4-971e-e5524c6e28bd","order_by":0,"name":"Felipe Gustavo Pilau","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAtklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gYGhgMPGBjkQBxmorTwHABqSWBgMCZNCwNQS2ID8Vr41x48kFBzOH3D+bMHmAv3EKNF4l3CgYRjh3M33MhLYJ7xjAgt9hJnDA4ksIG08Bgwg51J2BaQln+H0w3OnyFWC3+PwYHEtsMJBgdyiLaFL+FAYl+64UygXw7PIM6Ws4c/fPhmLc93/uzBxwXEaGGQyIHrZiBKAwMD/xmEllEwCkbBKBgFWAEAooA9kpunxCAAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1370-5352","institution":"Universidade de Sao Paulo","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Felipe","middleName":"Gustavo","lastName":"Pilau","suffix":""},{"id":10783074,"identity":"1b84d6e0-5db9-4d92-b6e5-72a9db9debf5","order_by":1,"name":"Fabio Ricardo Marin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universidade de Sao Paulo","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fabio","middleName":"Ricardo","lastName":"Marin","suffix":""},{"id":10783075,"identity":"cc93851d-54c3-4f4f-bf0d-8354c6b2d837","order_by":2,"name":"Daniel Grubert","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universidade de Sao Paulo","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daniel","middleName":"","lastName":"Grubert","suffix":""},{"id":10783076,"identity":"d40b102e-c912-4f1d-b31b-e56dbe96dc59","order_by":3,"name":"Genei Antonio Dalmago","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Embrapa Trigo","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Genei","middleName":"Antonio","lastName":"Dalmago","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2021-01-27 18:09:10","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-160366/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-160366/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":5864896,"identity":"cb2a6501-0e0e-4b0d-aafb-f8b347fde827","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-11 15:25:54","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":76599,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Location of the State of Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil, and distribution of weather stations considered in the analyzes within the State.","description":"","filename":"Fig1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-160366/v1/b53083c5cd986f9e88d8aa69.png"},{"id":5864900,"identity":"166c1c11-f2a8-4576-a0a2-c5c443972d40","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-11 15:25:54","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":8761,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Vertical thermal gradient (°C 100m-1) from October to May among all weather stations.","description":"","filename":"Fig2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-160366/v1/596ea810a4d9958f5289617e.png"},{"id":5865432,"identity":"27de7c4d-80e1-4b1e-83e8-57d504d4e5e0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-11 15:31:54","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":28731,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Relationship between mean cumulative rainfall (mm) and mean temperature deviation of the Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean Surface (°C) (OND to MAM seasons).","description":"","filename":"Fig3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-160366/v1/6b0e7101baa8e97e58d1144d.png"},{"id":5865211,"identity":"3b61f818-8229-4721-aafa-2e6059a8533f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-11 15:28:54","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":38904,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Soybean yield plotted against seasonal rainfall, boundary layer for attainable yield (Yw) and soybean yield data from cultivars trials.","description":"","filename":"Fig4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-160366/v1/e42238598b0f547c8df2ba5a.png"},{"id":5865209,"identity":"4afae5fa-8a9d-47ce-b124-7e91be0aef6c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-11 15:28:54","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":55850,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Relationship between soybean yield and water deficit (mm) for different ENSO phases (Neutral, El Niño and La Niña) for Clusters A, B and C.","description":"","filename":"Fig5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-160366/v1/e951ee1fa27a803849afd000.png"},{"id":13583401,"identity":"900c86c0-c8b9-4541-9def-17a395ad8902","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-09-17 04:34:56","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":604336,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"WaterSoybeanPilaunov2020.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-160366/v1_covered.pdf"},{"id":5865547,"identity":"72c4e519-19d0-4544-9f1c-4a49fad46ca2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-11 15:34:57","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":721940,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"WaterSoybeanPilaunov2020.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-160366/v1_stamped.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Impact of rainfall variability on soybean yields in Southern Brazil","fulltext":[{"header":"Full Text","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis preprint is available for \u003ca href='/article/rs-160366/latest.pdf' target='_blank'\u003edownload as a PDF\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-and-applied-climatology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"taac","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical and Applied Climatology](https://www.springer.com/journal/704)","snPcode":"704","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/704/3","title":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"soy bean, yield, rainfall, soil type, Brazil","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-160366/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-160366/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"As the third soybean-producer state in Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul (RS) presents a known year-on-year unevenness for soybean production, mainly due to water availability. This study aimed to assess the weather effects, with special focus on rainfall during 25 soybean growing seasons and 11 producing regions around the State. Sites were divided into three Clusters according to soybean yield and the effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was considered in association with soil water balance. Neutral ENSO phases occurred in 32% of the years, while El Niño and La Ninã occurring in 36% and 32% of the years, respectively. Seasons under El Niño normally present higher accumulated rainfall, whereas those under La Niña present a reduction. Data from neutral-year sites of Clusters B and C seems to be more disturbed. No season had statistical difference of rainfall among Clusters under Neutral conditions. In addition, thermal gradient in RS from October to January benefited sites of Cluster A. Interaction of soils with higher water-storage capacity and cooler temperature reduces the water consumption by soybeans, causing lower values of water deficiency. A boundary function relating soybean yield and rainfall displays the limit of 800 mm for significant yield increments, and such amounts of rainfall were only achieved in El Niño seasons. The combined effect of rainfall and soil type on soybean yield, represented by the actual soybean yields-water deficit relationship, led to water propitiate from -3.7 to -15.2 kg mm-1 ha-1. Decision-making on public policies and investments on the soybean industry can be supported from our results, either to better planning the investments on the soybean farming systems depending on the ENSO phase predictions, either to reduce the production risks in the region inherent to local weather.","manuscriptTitle":"Impact of rainfall variability on soybean yields in Southern Brazil","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2021-02-11 15:25:52","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-160366/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2021-02-12T00:00:00+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2021-02-07T00:00:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","date":"2021-01-20T13:54:34+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"decision","content":"Major Revisions Needed","date":"2019-01-16T01:15:44+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-and-applied-climatology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"taac","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical and Applied Climatology](https://www.springer.com/journal/704)","snPcode":"704","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/704/3","title":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"96101966-1888-4c82-b83b-e7346089c385","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 11th, 2021","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":2358287,"name":"Climatology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2021-07-22T10:39:25+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2021-02-11 15:25:52","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-160366","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-160366","identity":"rs-160366","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"WrCJVZZCHTDjtuVLN7oU0","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}