Harmonized Land Dynamics in Regional Climate Simulations and Projection: A LUH2-Based RegCM-CLM Study over Iran

Harmonized Land Dynamics in Regional Climate Simulations and Projection: A LUH2-Based RegCM-CLM Study over Iran | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Harmonized Land Dynamics in Regional Climate Simulations and Projection: A LUH2-Based RegCM-CLM Study over Iran Lobat Kosari Moghaddam, NOZAR GHAHREMAN, Iman Babaeian, Parviz Irannejad This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7743842/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Land use and land cover change can significantly affect regional climate variables through land-atmosphere interactions. When these changes are not represented dynamically, models may underestimate key feedbacks, especially in regions undergoing rapid transformation. Despite the importance of land surface dynamics, most regional climate studies continue to use static land datasets and ignore evolving processes. To address this limitation, we employed the RegCM4.7 regional climate model coupled with the CLM4.5 land surface model over Iran. The model was run using both the default static land data configuration and the annually updated Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2) datasets in place of the default configuration. Temperature and precipitation outputs were assessed for a historical period and two future intervals, using two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. Findings reveal that the application of Land Use Harmonization datasets leads to more accurate temperature outputs, particularly for daily minimum values. The dynamic configuration shows stronger warming trends and better agreement with ERA5 data. Based on the comparison with static land representation, temperature projections using dynamic LUH2 data are warmer by approximately 0.13°C to 1.2°C under SSP2-4.5 and 0.02°C to 0.26°C under SSP5-8.5 on a seasonal scale. These results suggest that the Sixth Assessment Report temperature projections may be optimistic, as incorporating dynamic land-change data leads to higher warming estimates. Although the static configuration performs better in simulating precipitation, the dynamic model provides a more detailed framework for long-term projections. Due to the dominant influence of large-scale atmospheric systems, land dynamics did not significantly improve precipitation outcomes. However, the adaptability of dynamic LULC data offers greater potential for capturing future variability and extremes under changing climate conditions. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of including land surface forcing in regional climate modeling, particularly for temperature and precipitation. Regional Climate Model Dynamic Land Surface Data Land Use Harmonization Climate Change Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7743842","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":525216805,"identity":"e983e610-974a-47b2-b5fc-a5f0e40a4571","order_by":0,"name":"Lobat Kosari Moghaddam","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tehran University: University of Tehran","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lobat","middleName":"Kosari","lastName":"Moghaddam","suffix":""},{"id":525216806,"identity":"50462f15-81ab-4c0d-ab1d-e4c207aacdef","order_by":1,"name":"NOZAR 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When these changes are not represented dynamically, models may underestimate key feedbacks, especially in regions undergoing rapid transformation. Despite the importance of land surface dynamics, most regional climate studies continue to use static land datasets and ignore evolving processes. To address this limitation, we employed the RegCM4.7 regional climate model coupled with the CLM4.5 land surface model over Iran. The model was run using both the default static land data configuration and the annually updated Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2) datasets in place of the default configuration. Temperature and precipitation outputs were assessed for a historical period and two future intervals, using two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. Findings reveal that the application of Land Use Harmonization datasets leads to more accurate temperature outputs, particularly for daily minimum values. The dynamic configuration shows stronger warming trends and better agreement with ERA5 data. Based on the comparison with static land representation, temperature projections using dynamic LUH2 data are warmer by approximately 0.13\u0026deg;C to 1.2\u0026deg;C under SSP2-4.5 and 0.02\u0026deg;C to 0.26\u0026deg;C under SSP5-8.5 on a seasonal scale. These results suggest that the Sixth Assessment Report temperature projections may be optimistic, as incorporating dynamic land-change data leads to higher warming estimates. Although the static configuration performs better in simulating precipitation, the dynamic model provides a more detailed framework for long-term projections. Due to the dominant influence of large-scale atmospheric systems, land dynamics did not significantly improve precipitation outcomes. However, the adaptability of dynamic LULC data offers greater potential for capturing future variability and extremes under changing climate conditions. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of including land surface forcing in regional climate modeling, particularly for temperature and precipitation.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Harmonized Land Dynamics in Regional Climate Simulations and Projection: A LUH2-Based RegCM-CLM Study over Iran","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-18 05:35:21","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7743842/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"be32a09a-0909-48aa-b876-8649d980f642","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 18th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-10-19T09:06:00+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-18 05:35:21","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7743842","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7743842","identity":"rs-7743842","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}