A Pandemic-Scale Ancestral Recombination Graph for SARS-CoV-2

Millions of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences were collected during the COVID-19 pandemic, forming a dataset of unprecedented richness. Estimated genealogies are fundamental to understanding this ocean of data and form the primary input to many downstream analyses. A basic assumption of methods to infer genealogies from viral genetic data is that recombination is negligible and the genealogy is a tree. However, recombinant lineages have risen to global prevalence, and simple tree representations are therefore incomplete and potentially misleading. We present sc2ts, a method to infer reticulate genealogies as an Ancestral Recombination Graph (ARG) in real time at pandemic scale. We infer an ARG for 2.48 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes, which leverages the widely used tskit software ecosystem to support further analyses and visualisation. This rich and validated resource clarifies the relationships among recombinant lineages, quantifies the rate of recombination over time, and provides a lower bound on detectable recombination.