Equitable vaccine distribution promotes socioeconomic benefits globally

Abstract Ensuring a more equitable distribution of vaccines worldwide is an effective strategy to control the COVID-19 pandemic and support global economic recovery. Here, we analyze the socioeconomic effects - defined as health gains, lockdown-easing benefit, and supply-chain rebuilding benefit - of a set of idealized vaccine distribution scenarios, by coupling an epidemiological model with a global trade-modeling framework. We find that overall a perfectly equitable vaccine distribution across the world (Altruistic Age-informed Distribution Strategy) would increase global economic benefits by 11.7% ($950 billion) per year, compared to a strategy focusing on vaccinating the entire population within vaccine-producing countries first and then distributing vaccines to non-vaccine-producing countries (Selfish Distribution Strategy). With limited doses among mid- and low-income countries, prioritizing the elderly who are at high risk of dying, together with the key workforce who are at high risk of exposure, is found to be economically beneficial. We further show that such a strategy would cascade the protection to other production sectors while rebuilding the supply chains. Our results point to a benefit-sharing mechanism which highlights the potential of collaboration between vaccine-producing and other countries to guide an economically preferable vaccine distribution worldwide.