Managing domestic trade for food security with environmental and economic equity in China

Managing domestic trade for food security with environmental and economic equity in China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Managing domestic trade for food security with environmental and economic equity in China Baojing Gu, Chen Wang, Xiuming Zhang, Chenchen Ren, Xin Xuan, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6990559/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Grain production is critical for national food security, yet it significantly contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, nitrogen pollution, and substantial water resource consumption. Achieving both food security and environmental sustainability locally necessitates coordinated national regulations and compensation frameworks. Using data spanning from 1980 to 2020 in China, our analysis demonstrates that inter-provincial grain trade in wheat, maize, and rice increased over fivefold, rising from 22 to 128 million tonnes. Grain production in China has progressively shifted from southern to northern regions, resulting in pronounced spatial spillover effects. This transition led to a 196% increase in cropland displacement, a 606% surge in virtual blue water consumption, and a 213% rise in nitrogen pollution embedded in interprovincial grain trade. While this reallocation intensified water scarcity and nitrogen loading in northern provinces, it unexpectedly contributed to a 41% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions. This outcome highlights a critical climate co-benefit, driven by the emergence of northern croplands as a regional carbon sink under the new agricultural structure. To mitigate these environmental impacts and ensure national food security, our analysis suggests an annual subsidy of approximately US$81 billion from southern to northern provinces by 2060. This is vital to fostering sustainable agricultural development while also supporting equity of economic activities in China. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Biological sciences/Biochemistry/Biogeochemistry/Element cycles Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SIsupplementaryinformation.pdf Supplementary Information for Managing domestic trade for food security with environmental and economic equity in China Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6990559","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":505324261,"identity":"49195bd1-575b-4b91-95c2-9768549a6e6f","order_by":0,"name":"Baojing 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