Four-decade hydro-meteorological variability and machine-learning based weather projections (1983-2050) for Nalphu village, Jajarkot, Nepal using XGboost

Four-decade hydro-meteorological variability and machine-learning based weather projections (1983-2050) for Nalphu village, Jajarkot, Nepal using XGboost | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Four-decade hydro-meteorological variability and machine-learning based weather projections (1983-2050) for Nalphu village, Jajarkot, Nepal using XGboost Ganesh Rawat This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8262924/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study provides the first comprehensive, multi-parameter hydro-meteorological assessment and machine-learning based climate projection for Chhedagad Municipality Ward no. 10, Nalphu Village, a data-scarce mid-mountain region of Jajarkot, Nepal. Using four decades (1983–2024) of NASA POWER reanalysis data, we analyzed long-term variability in temperature, precipitation, cloud amount, humidity, windspeed, surface pressure, and solar radiation to characterize historical climate behavior and emerging shifts. Results reveal strong monsoon-driven seasonality across all parameters, a statistically significant cooling tendency in temperature after the early 2000s (Sen’s slope = − 0.052°C/year), and a major hydrological regime shift marked by a transition from dry to wetter conditions in 2004. Precipitation increased significantly (Sen’s slope = + 15.5 mm/year), driven primarily by enhanced monsoon rainfall. Cloud amount exhibited pronounced seasonal and interannual fluctuations and exerted clear climatic influence, strengthening rainfall during monsoon months (r = 0.60–0.72) and suppressing temperature through cloud-induced cooling. Humidity and specific humidity showed strong long-term increases, consistent with a wetter, moisture-laden atmosphere, while solar radiation demonstrated a significant decline after 2000. Windspeed displayed a multi-decadal weakening trend, and surface pressure remained exceptionally stable. XGBoost-based forecasts (2025–2050) project a continuation of current climatic patterns, including moderate warming, stable-to-wet precipitation cycles, steady cloud amounts, and no major shifts in radiation or pressure regimes. Overall, the study offers a rigorous, multi-method climate diagnosis and future outlook for one of Nepal’s most climate-vulnerable highland communities, providing essential scientific evidence for agricultural planning, water-resource management, solar power installation and local climate adaptation. Climatology Hydrology Meteorology Climate Analysis and Modeling Hydro-meteorological variability Machine-learning climate projection Monsoon dynamics NASA POWER reanalysis Himalayan climate change XGBoost forecasting Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8262924","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":554208884,"identity":"273e0722-499a-4037-ae2d-672c6efeadb5","order_by":0,"name":"Ganesh 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XGboost\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Michigan Technological University","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Hydro-meteorological variability, Machine-learning climate projection, Monsoon dynamics, NASA POWER reanalysis, Himalayan climate change, XGBoost forecasting","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8262924/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8262924/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study provides the first comprehensive, multi-parameter hydro-meteorological assessment and machine-learning based climate projection for Chhedagad Municipality Ward no. 10, Nalphu Village, a data-scarce mid-mountain region of Jajarkot, Nepal. Using four decades (1983\u0026ndash;2024) of NASA POWER reanalysis data, we analyzed long-term variability in temperature, precipitation, cloud amount, humidity, windspeed, surface pressure, and solar radiation to characterize historical climate behavior and emerging shifts. Results reveal strong monsoon-driven seasonality across all parameters, a statistically significant cooling tendency in temperature after the early 2000s (Sen\u0026rsquo;s slope = \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.052\u0026deg;C/year), and a major hydrological regime shift marked by a transition from dry to wetter conditions in 2004. Precipitation increased significantly (Sen\u0026rsquo;s slope\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;15.5 mm/year), driven primarily by enhanced monsoon rainfall. Cloud amount exhibited pronounced seasonal and interannual fluctuations and exerted clear climatic influence, strengthening rainfall during monsoon months (r\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.60\u0026ndash;0.72) and suppressing temperature through cloud-induced cooling. Humidity and specific humidity showed strong long-term increases, consistent with a wetter, moisture-laden atmosphere, while solar radiation demonstrated a significant decline after 2000. Windspeed displayed a multi-decadal weakening trend, and surface pressure remained exceptionally stable. XGBoost-based forecasts (2025\u0026ndash;2050) project a continuation of current climatic patterns, including moderate warming, stable-to-wet precipitation cycles, steady cloud amounts, and no major shifts in radiation or pressure regimes. Overall, the study offers a rigorous, multi-method climate diagnosis and future outlook for one of Nepal\u0026rsquo;s most climate-vulnerable highland communities, providing essential scientific evidence for agricultural planning, water-resource management, solar power installation and local climate adaptation.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Four-decade hydro-meteorological variability and machine-learning based weather projections (1983-2050) for Nalphu village, Jajarkot, Nepal using XGboost","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-03 08:46:29","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8262924/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"a0103381-20bd-4fed-8f6f-d45918cc9374","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 3rd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":58978049,"name":"Climatology"},{"id":58978050,"name":"Hydrology"},{"id":58978051,"name":"Meteorology"},{"id":58978052,"name":"Climate Analysis and Modeling"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-12-03T08:46:29+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-03 08:46:29","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8262924","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8262924","identity":"rs-8262924","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}