Supercritical dynamics governs extreme seismic hazard

Supercritical dynamics governs extreme seismic hazard | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Supercritical dynamics governs extreme seismic hazard Davide Zaccagnino This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7340286/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Earthquake hazard assessment relies on the principle that seismic events follow predictable size distributions, with the largest quakes limited by fault geometry and slip rates. Nevertheless, some devastating earthquakes, like in Japan in 2011, transcend these rules, exposing weaknesses in our understanding of extreme seismic events. Here, I show that conventional models fail to account for supercritical dynamics, a physical mechanism where stress cascades dynamically trigger faults failures, enabling whole-scale ruptures far larger than expected. By analysing 20 global regions on the base of historical data and seismic catalogues, I demonstrate that such mechanism produces heavy-tailed distributions, increasing the likelihood of megaquakes by order of magnitudes. This reconciles long-standing discrepancies between geodetic measurements and paleoseismic evidence revealing the occurrence of past mega-events. My findings challenge the assumption that fault segmentation inherently limits earthquake size, revealing instead that near-critical stress states can enable ruptures across multiple fault systems. This result implies that global hazard assessment, mostly based on subcritical seismicity models, must integrate physics-based supercriticality, geodetic and paleoseismic data to reliably quantify megaquake hazard. Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Seismology Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Geophysics Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterialsZaccagninoCEE2025.pdf Supplemental Material Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7340286","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":507033407,"identity":"4142aa75-f994-4ce6-b14e-ab2cd634073e","order_by":0,"name":"Davide Zaccagnino","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6884-8452","institution":"Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Davide","middleName":"","lastName":"Zaccagnino","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-10 17:35:10","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7340286/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7340286/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":90632718,"identity":"7fa92e45-dee3-49c8-bbb4-e20fb181c688","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-05 03:16:33","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":11353485,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"ZaccagninoCEE2025.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7340286/v1_covered_d2637582-69c7-470e-aa04-daf8238befbb.pdf"},{"id":90631921,"identity":"cad1506c-7dfe-433b-a1ef-0ffa8b97a683","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-05 03:00:10","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":127061,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplemental Material","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryMaterialsZaccagninoCEE2025.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7340286/v1/499915f33a6a04c986923255.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Supercritical dynamics governs extreme seismic hazard","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":true,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7340286/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7340286/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Earthquake hazard assessment relies on the principle that seismic events follow predictable size distributions, with the largest quakes limited by fault geometry and slip rates. 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