Evidence-Based Policy Making: Analysis and Policy Recommendations for how the Philippines can manage a Cost-Effective Clean Energy Transition.

Abstract The purpose of this research was to assess different scenarios for a cost-effective clean energy transition in the Philippines. This was done by using the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), which is a modelling software that can be used to project future energy capacities for a country, among other relevant factors such as capital investment and carbon emissions. The six scenarios modelled were least cost (LC), coal phase out (CPO), Philippines energy plan (PEP), combined energy plan (CEP), nationally determined contribution (NDC) and net zero (NZ). The key findings indicated that the CEP scenario was the most cost-effective scenario as the emissions are over 50% less compared to the LC scenario, as well as phasing out coal by 2050 and supporting the goals of the Philippines Development Plan. However, the ambitious NDC and NZ scenarios should be worked towards if funding can be secured to support them. For the Philippines, the main focus must be on the phasing out of coal, as well as a particular focus on certain renewables and the importance of finance, among other factors. This study therefore presents a discussion based on the results about the most crucial factors and what can be done to make an energy transition successful.