Predictability Limits of North American Winter Precipitation in The Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research

Predictability Limits of North American Winter Precipitation in The Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Predictability Limits of North American Winter Precipitation in The Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research Joseph Clark, Nathaniel C. Johnson This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6280010/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 03 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Given that seasonal precipitation predictions over North America are not particularly skillful, assessing whether forecast system refinements can enhance skill and societal usefulness of seasonal forecasts is important. We investigate by using Average Predictability Time (APT) analysis to filter wintertime, seasonal precipitation hindcasts provided by the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research. Using this method, which decomposes forecasts into predictable modes, we find limited potential to improve seasonal precipitation forecasts over North America owing to the subseasonal predictability timescales of most APT modes. Nevertheless, more skillful forecasts of APT mode 2, which is tied to equatorial Pacific convection and has a predictability timescale of about 220 days, may improve seasonal precipitation forecasts over North America. We demonstrate that predictions for the winters of 2015-2016 and 2021-2022, which featured notable forecast errors over western North America, may have been improved with better predictions of this second APT mode. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files latestsupporting.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 03 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 29 Apr, 2025 Reviews received at journal 12 Apr, 2025 Reviews received at journal 12 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Mar, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Mar, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Mar, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 25 Mar, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 24 Mar, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 24 Mar, 2025 First submitted to journal 21 Mar, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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