New dynamic approach models to estimate the effect of dietary fatty acids on lipid profiles and the incidence of cardiovascular disease in the MASHAD cohort study

Background: Due to the controversial effect of dietary fat intake on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) risk, this study aimed to, adopt a new dynamic model that was tested and evaluated to estimate the effect of dietary fatty acids on the incidence of cardiovascular disease in the MASHAD cohort. Methods Total subjects of the Mashhad Stroke and Heart Atherosclerotic Disorder (MASHAD) study, 9704 subjects (of whom 233 developed CVD after 6 years with CVD) were recruited using a randomized clustering approach. Lipids profiles were taken after a 14 hours of overnight fast. 24-h recall questionnaire was used to measure the dietary intakes. A four-dimensional mathematical model based on the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model in the dynamics of food intake was formulated for cardiovascular patients. Results Dietary saturated fatty acid (SFA), polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) and monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) had an effect on the HDL in women and dietary trans fatty acid (TFA) and cholesterol had an effect on serum LDL, had the greatest effect on the CVDs. In addition, among other dietary fatty acids, cholesterol and TFA had the most and least effect on the incidence of CVDs in dyslipidemia patients, respectively. Regardless of the effect of fatty acids intake on lipid profile, which is more evident in females, CVDs were more in males. Conclusion Our models showed that higher intake of MUFA, PUFA as well as lower intake of SFA had a significant effect on serum HDL in women and among other dietary factors, had the most effect on the occurrence of CVDs.