Uncertainties in forecasts of ecosystem persistence under climate change

Uncertainties in forecasts of ecosystem persistence under climate change | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Uncertainties in forecasts of ecosystem persistence under climate change Christina Buelow, Dominic Andradi-Brown, Thomas Worthington, Maria Fernanda Adame, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3708020/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global forecasts of ecosystem responses to increasing climatic and anthropogenic pressures are needed to inform adaptation planning. However, data of appropriate spatio-temporal resolution are not typically available to parameterise complex processes at the global scale. Forecast uncertainty associated with ‘data-process’ scale incongruities must be quantified and effectively communicated to avoid over-confident decision-making. Here, we used network models to make probabilistic forecasts of the direction of change in mangrove extent globally under the SSP5-8.5 climate emissions scenario by 2040-2060. We forecast that seaward net loss is the most likely outcome in 77% [±37-78%; 95% confidence] of mangrove forest units, while 30% [±15-59%] will experience landward net gain or stability. Parameter uncertainty limited our capacity to make reliable forecasts everywhere, highlighting where current understanding and global datasets are deficient. However, with action to manage or restore, the number of mangrove forest units likely to experience net gain or stability could nearly double. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Biological sciences/Ecology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files 20231204Buelowetalmangrovenetworkmodelssuppmaterial.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3708020","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":265419280,"identity":"4a64e2e3-91ca-4d9d-b7e1-6ac7d76c4c21","order_by":0,"name":"Christina 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