Decades of Increased Emissions from Forest-Fueled BECCS

Decades of Increased Emissions from Forest-Fueled BECCS | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Decades of Increased Emissions from Forest-Fueled BECCS Timothy Searchinger, Liqing Peng, Daniella Russi, Charles Canham This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9038129/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Should climate policies encourage bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) using wood from existing forests? Although mitigation pathways in integrated assessment models often rely on BECCS fueled by energy crops, European governments are moving to financially support BECCS sourced instead from existing forests. To estimate its emissions and financial costs, we develop a model that transparently tracks carbon flows from forest to end use and allows policymakers to easily alter assumptions. Modeling multiple wood-sourcing scenarios, we find that BECCS is unlikely to generate negative emissions within 150 years, is likely to produce higher emissions for decades than using natural gas without carbon capture and is likely to increase electricity costs by ~ 3.5-fold. Only limited improvements occur even if half of the wood comes from residues and half from fast-growing plantations. These results reflect that most emissions occur before the power plant and therefore cannot be captured, and that wood has twice the carbon intensity of natural gas and generates electricity less efficiently. These results counsel against emerging BECCS policies, and our easy-to-use model allows policymakers to evaluate results and different scenarios themselves. Forestry Conservation Biology Environmental Policy Climate Analysis and Modeling climate change forests BECCS bioenergy Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformationPreprintDecadesofIncreassedEmissionsfromForestFueledBECCS2026.pdf Supplementary Information BECCSWOODModelv.12026protected.xlsm BECCS-WOOD Model BECCSWOODModelv.12026protected.xlsm BECCS-WOOD Model SupplementaryInformationPreprintDecadesofIncreassedEmissionsfromForestFueledBECCS2026.pdf Supplementary Information SupplementaryInformationPreprintDecadesofIncreassedEmissionsfromForestFueledBECCS2026.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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