Has the educational progress in China exacerbated the deviation of fertility intention from fertility behavior?

The discrepancy between fertility intentions and fertility behavior has been a common occurrence, yet there is no consensus regarding the impact of education on fertility deviations and the underlying mechanisms. Drawing on data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) conducted in 2017, this study examines the influence of education on fertility deviations and investigates the mediating mechanisms through which education affects such deviations. The findings reveal that the relationship between education and fertility deviation is not simply linear.The individuals with both lower and higher levels of education are prone to deviate from their intended fertility, but in contrasting ways. Those with lower level of education tend to exhibit lower fertility intentions compared to their actual fertility behavior, whereas the reverse is observed among individuals with higher education levels. As educational attainment increases, the phenomenon of fertility intentions surpassing actual behavior becomes more pronounced. The stepwise regression analysis of the mediating effect and the results of the KHB decomposition demonstrate that personal income and age of first marriage serve as mediators in the educational influence on fertility deviation, with the latter playing a particularly significant role. Based on these findings, the following recommendations are proposed: shortening the duration of compulsory education and lower the legal age of marriage; redefine the concept of educational involution and decrease the financial burden of children's education; promote balanced development of basic education and bridge the educational disparities between urban and rural areas.