Misinformation can prevent the suppression of epidemics

A bstract The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as mask-wearing and social distancing, as control measures for pandemic disease relies upon a conscientious and well-informed public who are aware of and prepared to follow advice. Unfortunately, public health messages can be undermined by competing misinformation and conspiracy theories, spread virally through communities that are already distrustful of expert opinion. In this article, we propose and analyse a simple model of the interaction between disease spread and (mis-) information dynamics in a heterogeneous population composed of both trusting individuals who seek quality information and will take precautionary measures, and distrusting individuals who are susceptible to misinformation. We show that, as the density of the distrusting population increases, the model passes through a phase transition to a state in which major outbreaks cannot be suppressed. Our work highlights the urgent need for effective measures to combat the spread of misinformation.