Do Thermostatic Radiator Valves Waste Energy in UK Heat Pump Retrofits?

Domestic heating systems in the UK and across northern Europe are responsible for a substantial fraction of their countries’ carbon footprints. In the UK the vast majority of home space heating is via natural gas boilers with ’wet’ hydronic radiator systems. Most of those use TRVs (Thermostatic Radiator Valves) to avoid overheating, improve comfort and save energy. To meet Net Zero targets 20 million such UK gas systems may be retrofitted with heat pumps. Heat pump system designers and installers are cautious about retaining TRVs in such retrofitted systems in part because of worries that TRV temperature setbacks that lower heat demand may actually raise heat pump electricity demand in a "bad setback effect", thus wasting energy. This paper presents a new view of heat pump control and provides the first exploration of this issue, modelling one such industry claim, and finds that though real it should not apply to typical UK retrofits with weather compensation. The energy efficiency benefits of TRVs for older and partly-occupied homes, and to keep bedrooms cooler, remain valid. Comfort-seeking householders and installers should know that setting ’stiff’ temperature regulation may invoke the bad setback effect and cost dearly in energy and carbon footprint.