Quantifying primary biomass production capacity and supply: A cost function approach to assess global and regional potential

Quantifying primary biomass production capacity and supply: A cost function approach to assess global and regional potential | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Quantifying primary biomass production capacity and supply: A cost function approach to assess global and regional potential Saadaoui Siwar, Garcia Serge, Benoît Gabrielle, Thierry BRUNELLE This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8305353/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper maps where and how much primary biomass from dedicated lignocellulosic crops can be produced under stringent sustainability guardrails, and how unit costs evolve as production scales up. We assemble a harmonized 5 arc minutes global grid of marginal lands screened for food security and environmental constraints, and couple two complementary methods. First, we construct regional and global capacity–cost envelopes by spatially ranking grid cells by farm-gate unit cost and cumulatively aggregating potential. This descriptive step identifies the least-cost clusters and provides transparent orders of magnitude for planning. Second, treating each pixel as a decision unit (exploitation), we estimate parsimonious cubic total-cost functions with region and country effects to recover average(AC) and marginal (MC) cost schedules and the efficient scale Q∗ , thereby deriving micro-founded supply behavior. Results show strong spatial heterogeneity and a systematic divergence between “capacity leaders” and “cost leaders.” Capacity–cost envelopes highlight extensive low-cost clusters in Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe & Central Asia (with concentration in Central Asia), and North America, with additional but smaller clusters in East Asia & Pacific, Latin America & Caribbean, the Middle East & North Africa, and South Asia. Pixel-level econometrics reveals that: (i) in Europe & Central Asia and in Latin America & Caribbean, MC typically remains below AC over wide ranges, indicating persistent economies of scale; (ii) in North America, AC curves are U-shaped with steep MC rises beyond Q∗ , signaling pronounced diseconomies at high output; (iii) in South Asia, most crops exhibit declining AC across the observed range (strong economies), while Miscanthus shows a mild U-shape; (iv) in Sub-Saharan Africa, Miscanthus displays exceptionally flat and low AC at small efficient scales, whereas other crops face early diseconomies; and (v) in East Asia & Pacific, only MC is identified, serving as the regional supply curve. Across regions, Miscanthus and Switchgrass often anchor the lower cost envelope, while Eucalyptus, Poplar, and Willow tend to occupy higher cost segments. Therefore, policy and investment decisions should be sequenced: use capacity–cost envelopes for strategic targeting and portfolio sizing, then rely on pixel-level AC/MC and Q∗ to guide fine-grained siting, contracting, and risk-aware scaling Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Dedicated lignocellulosic crops marginal lands production capacity cost functions average and marginal cost supply function of biomass Miscanthus Eucalyptus global assessment Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8305353","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":570233601,"identity":"861f6fec-3fcc-47ef-9b79-458dd08d35dc","order_by":0,"name":"Saadaoui Siwar","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Agroparistech","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Saadaoui","middleName":"","lastName":"Siwar","suffix":""},{"id":570233602,"identity":"7ca77690-36fd-40b8-859d-ca83e8f7880b","order_by":1,"name":"Garcia Serge","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"inrae","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Garcia","middleName":"","lastName":"Serge","suffix":""},{"id":570233603,"identity":"55f28e96-efce-451b-b31f-628462baeb84","order_by":2,"name":"Benoît Gabrielle","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9131-2549","institution":"INRAE AgroParisTech","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Benoît","middleName":"","lastName":"Gabrielle","suffix":""},{"id":570233604,"identity":"0e4bf697-15e1-494c-848f-07d06c070db0","order_by":3,"name":"Thierry BRUNELLE","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5350-8332","institution":"CIRAD","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Thierry","middleName":"","lastName":"BRUNELLE","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-12-08 08:30:36","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8305353/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8305353/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":99729042,"identity":"189c1cbf-b7ca-42c8-8787-dfc699a382f5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-07 17:18:27","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":4207861,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"PaperNC.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8305353/v1/43d80a6a3877d700ee5ca43f.pdf"},{"id":99729041,"identity":"cab253b8-64ef-48e3-a929-4f70507443f3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-07 17:18:27","extension":"json","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":6956,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"NCOMMS25099278.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8305353/v1/dca4d5b5f358556ea10e04c2.json"},{"id":106993691,"identity":"41734615-fbfe-4028-9258-c72be2d01e4c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-15 14:45:09","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":3180667,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"PaperNC.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8305353/v1_covered_6374de74-1a87-42e6-af80-40db36d972a2.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Quantifying primary biomass production\r\ncapacity and supply:\r\nA cost function approach to assess global\r\nand regional potential","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Dedicated lignocellulosic crops, marginal lands, production capacity, cost functions; average and marginal cost, supply function of biomass, Miscanthus, Eucalyptus, global assessment","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8305353/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8305353/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"This paper maps where and how much primary biomass from dedicated lignocellulosic\r\ncrops can be produced under stringent sustainability guardrails, and how unit costs\r\nevolve as production scales up. We assemble a harmonized 5 arc minutes global grid of\r\nmarginal lands screened for food security and environmental constraints, and couple two\r\ncomplementary methods. First, we construct regional and global capacity–cost envelopes by\r\nspatially ranking grid cells by farm-gate unit cost and cumulatively aggregating potential.\r\nThis descriptive step identifies the least-cost clusters and provides transparent orders of\r\nmagnitude for planning. Second, treating each pixel as a decision unit (exploitation),\r\nwe estimate parsimonious cubic total-cost functions with region and country effects to\r\nrecover average(AC) and marginal (MC) cost schedules and the efficient scale Q∗\r\n, thereby\r\nderiving micro-founded supply behavior.\r\nResults show strong spatial heterogeneity and a systematic divergence between “capacity leaders” and “cost leaders.” Capacity–cost envelopes highlight extensive low-cost\r\nclusters in Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe \u0026 Central Asia (with concentration in Central\r\nAsia), and North America, with additional but smaller clusters in East Asia \u0026 Pacific,\r\nLatin America \u0026 Caribbean, the Middle East \u0026 North Africa, and South Asia. Pixel-level\r\neconometrics reveals that: (i) in Europe \u0026 Central Asia and in Latin America \u0026 Caribbean,\r\nMC typically remains below AC over wide ranges, indicating persistent economies of scale;\r\n(ii) in North America, AC curves are U-shaped with steep MC rises beyond Q∗\r\n, signaling\r\npronounced diseconomies at high output; (iii) in South Asia, most crops exhibit declining\r\nAC across the observed range (strong economies), while Miscanthus shows a mild U-shape;\r\n(iv) in Sub-Saharan Africa, Miscanthus displays exceptionally flat and low AC at small\r\nefficient scales, whereas other crops face early diseconomies; and (v) in East Asia \u0026 Pacific,\r\nonly MC is identified, serving as the regional supply curve. Across regions, Miscanthus\r\nand Switchgrass often anchor the lower cost envelope, while Eucalyptus, Poplar, and\r\nWillow tend to occupy higher cost segments.\r\nTherefore, policy and investment decisions should be sequenced: use capacity–cost\r\nenvelopes for strategic targeting and portfolio sizing, then rely on pixel-level AC/MC and\r\nQ∗\r\nto guide fine-grained siting, contracting, and risk-aware scaling","manuscriptTitle":"Quantifying primary biomass production\ncapacity and supply:\nA cost function approach to assess global\nand regional potential","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-07 17:18:23","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8305353/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"1b2eebec-ad9b-46a3-b726-0127d79444f6","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 7th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":60676830,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"},{"id":60676831,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-19T19:26:38+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-07 17:18:23","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8305353","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8305353","identity":"rs-8305353","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}