Prediction of Number of Covid-19 Affected Persons by Using Gompertz Curves

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the First and the Second Covid Waves experienced by India using the modified versions of Gompertz Curve (MGC) and to estimate the maximum number of affected individuals for each wave with the best possible accuracy. The time period of collected data is from 30th January 2020 to 11th July 2021. The entire dataset is segregated into two parts, i.e., for the First and the Second Waves and then modelled individually by the MGC. The robustness of the fits is checked, and then residuals are further modelled successively to improve the accuracy of the estimates. A key highlight of this paper is that our model can be implemented taking a smaller dataset with reasonable accuracy. Finally, a comparative analysis of the results has been performed with the Logistic Model and the ARIMA Models.