Can The Timing And Duration of Planktonic Larval Development Determine Invasion Success? A Case Study Comparing Range Expansion In The European Green Crab, Carcinus Maenas, And The Native Lined Shore Crab, Pachygrapsus Crassipes, In The North-Eastern Pacific.

Abstract Major El Niño events and oceanic heat waves are linked to the range expansion of many marine species. For the shores of the northeast Pacific, we compared range expansion in the European green crab, Carcinus maenas, which was introduced to San Francisco Bay prior to 1990, to that of the native lined-shore crab, Pachygrapsus crassipes, which has existed on the coast since at least the end of the last Ice Age (>10,000 years ago). The initial northern range limit of these species was central California and central Oregon, respectively. Both species increased their northern range along the open coast to northern Oregon, Washington and Vancouver Island after strong El Niño events. C. maenas, however, in just a matter of decades, successfully established populations in inlets on the west coast of Vancouver Island, and possibly also in the Salish Sea, while P. crassipes, in thousands of years, never has. We hypothesize that this difference in invasion success is due to the shorter larval duration of C. maenas, < 2 months, compared to that of P. crassipes, 3-4 months and timing of larval release, winter for both species. Because the residency times of water in the inlets of the west coast of Vancouver Island are ~1-2 months, they can act as an incubator for the larvae of C. maenas, while those of P. crassipes are likely flushed out to the open sea before they can complete their development.