Testing the climate niche framework for amphibian extinction risk

Testing the climate niche framework for amphibian extinction risk | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Testing the climate niche framework for amphibian extinction risk Maximilian Kotz, Claus Sarnighausen This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6673935/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The climate niche is a widely used framework for evaluating extinction risk under climate change[1–3] but has yet to be extensively tested in the context of historical extinctions. Here, we propose to use comparative extinction risk modelling[4] to evaluate leading climate impact models in terms of how well they predict historical transitions in IUCN Red List categories for 6,288 amphibian species between 1980 and 2021[5]. Species distribution models and exposure metrics based on the climate niche framework do not predict extinction risk once accounting for species range area, a strong determinant of extinction risk. However, changes in average climate conditions across range areas do provide significant additional predictive power, with higher risk for species that have experienced faster warming or larger changes in the seasonality of precipitation. Moreover, the modeled importance of average climate conditions for extinction risk across amphibians has increased between 1980-2004 and 2004-2021. These results demonstrate that while climate change is playing an increasingly important role in elevating amphibian extinction risk, widely used methods for assessing these risks across species do not appear to accurately reflect this pattern historically. Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Biological sciences/Ecology/Conservation biology Climate niche Extinction risk Amphibians Climate change Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6673935","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":460504900,"identity":"08b32a5b-4178-40f4-8b56-6b4b053261e4","order_by":0,"name":"Maximilian Kotz","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA90lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACZhAhx8DMBuUfAGIegloSGIyhWgyI15LYwECsFt32M8YGH3/UpW9nZ0tgLqj4Y893/HQCw5sK3FrMzqQlJ85IYMvd2cx2gHnGGYPEmWdyNzDOOYNHy4Hkw4d5EnhyNxxmb//N22aQYHAgdwMzbxseLecfNgO1SKQbHGZvAKo0sDc4/xao5R8eLTeSDyfzJAANPwx0GFAL44YbIFsa8Gl5lmw4Iy3BEOiXBKBfjBNn3ni74eCcY/gclmMs8cGmTt6c/5gBMMTk7PnO52588KYGtxY4AEYIJB2AwAEiNKBpGQWjYBSMglGADABoYlIYxTn2OAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2564-5043","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Maximilian","middleName":"","lastName":"Kotz","suffix":""},{"id":460504901,"identity":"1fff38ce-3353-4ab5-9862-cbd4974f5f5f","order_by":1,"name":"Claus Sarnighausen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Heidelberg","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Claus","middleName":"","lastName":"Sarnighausen","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-15 15:17:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6673935/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6673935/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":85366329,"identity":"7f2383d2-eb55-42da-9355-cc28595d461c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-25 06:53:22","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1263094,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File #1","description":"","filename":"NEESarnighausenKotz.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6673935/v1_covered_71a91b25-0e8f-46a1-8e87-346da23e99ef.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Testing the climate niche framework for amphibian extinction risk","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Climate niche, Extinction risk, Amphibians, Climate change","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6673935/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6673935/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The climate niche is a widely used framework for evaluating extinction risk under climate change[1–3] but has yet to be extensively tested in the context of historical extinctions. 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