A Greenland ice core record of H2 reveals enhanced sensitivity to climate

A Greenland ice core record of H2 reveals enhanced sensitivity to climate | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article A Greenland ice core record of H2 reveals enhanced sensitivity to climate John Patterson, Murat Aydin, Miranda Miranda, Eric Saltzman This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7320711/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 04 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Nature → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Anthropogenic emissions of hydrogen (H2) are expected to rise with increasing production and use during the green energy transition. Although atmospheric H2 is not radiatively active, it warms the Earth’s climate via chemical effects on methane, ozone, and water vapor1-6. Predicting the atmospheric response to anthropogenic perturbations is challenging due to the limitations of the modern instrumental record. Ice core measurements of H2 can greatly extend the observational record and provide enhanced dynamic range to test theories about the global biogeochemistry and climate sensitivity of H2. Ice core measurements of H2 are challenging because of the uniquely high permeability of H2 in ice. Here we present the first ice core record of atmospheric H2 recovered from a Greenland ice core, spanning the last millennium. The record shows a 60% rise in atmospheric H2 from the preindustrial to the modern, consistent with increasing direct emissions from fossil fuel burning and increased atmospheric concentrations of H2 precursors. The results limit the strength of the previously proposed geologic source of H2. The record also shows a 16% decrease in H2 levels during the Little Ice Age. No more than half of that decrease can be attributed to biomass burning changes. These results demonstrate that conventional estimates likely underestimate the climate sensitivity of H2 biogeochemistry. This sensitivity must be accounted for in estimates of the radiative consequences of anthropogenic emissions in a warming climate. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Palaeoclimate Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric chemistry Earth and environmental sciences/Biogeochemistry/Element cycles Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 04 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Nature → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7320711","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":504313083,"identity":"96a60557-cb82-47dd-99a0-b14b47814562","order_by":0,"name":"John Patterson","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAw0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxoYECIMfiA8wMDATqeUAEEs2EKuFgQGqxeAAmEeEFub23IOfP/6wyTe+kfzwAEOFdWIDQYf1vEuWOJCQZrntRhrQojPpRGiZkWMA1HLYwOxGDsMBxrbDRGkx/nEg4b+B8QyQln/EaTED2nLAwEACpKWBGC0979IszqQlG0iceWZwIOFYujFBLYbtuYdvVNjYGfC3Jz/+8KHGWpawlgYeJF4CIeUgIM/AQ1jRKBgFo2AUjHAAADfRRP9saoK3AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5527-9553","institution":"University of California, Irvine, Department of Earth System Science","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"John","middleName":"","lastName":"Patterson","suffix":""},{"id":504313084,"identity":"7dd4f828-f950-4cc4-ae69-dbbfcbb320f4","order_by":1,"name":"Murat Aydin","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1558-3881","institution":"University of California, Irvine","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Murat","middleName":"","lastName":"Aydin","suffix":""},{"id":504313085,"identity":"f3ddafef-d60f-4ef0-a0c3-3a627d3a3d3e","order_by":2,"name":"Miranda Miranda","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-8554-8608","institution":"University of California, Irvine, Department of Earth System Science","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Miranda","middleName":"","lastName":"Miranda","suffix":""},{"id":504313086,"identity":"e026781d-3ba0-45b3-b50e-30aec1a40c6e","order_by":3,"name":"Eric Saltzman","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4364-6023","institution":"University of California, Irvine","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eric","middleName":"","lastName":"Saltzman","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-07 16:31:01","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7320711/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7320711/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10099-1","type":"published","date":"2026-02-04T05:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101934431,"identity":"e180a417-fc02-4312-abce-131453a061a9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-05 08:14:44","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":818561,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Manuscript20250807.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7320711/v1_covered_3124642b-8a3d-4aad-a95f-7f9a55ac14ee.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"A Greenland ice core record of H2 reveals enhanced sensitivity to climate","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7320711/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7320711/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Anthropogenic emissions of hydrogen (H2) are expected to rise with increasing production and use during the green energy transition. 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