Climate-driven impacts in renewable resources alter green hydrogen supply

Climate-driven impacts in renewable resources alter green hydrogen supply | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Climate-driven impacts in renewable resources alter green hydrogen supply Wenying Chen, Jinhui Ren, Qianzhi Zhang, Shulei Zhang, Shu Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8356734/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The large-scale deployment of variable renewable energy is increasingly coupling the climate and energy sectors, yet the potential impacts of climate change on renewable-based green hydrogen production remain poorly understood. Here we combine bottom-up optimization-based modeling with machine-learning algorithms to assess global grid-level green hydrogen supply. We find that, under mid-century climate and technology trajectories, mean green hydrogen costs are projected to fall below US$1.5 kgH2-1 in around one third of representative countries worldwide. Regions exhibit pronounced heterogeneity in climate-induced impacts on green hydrogen production costs (ranging from -25% to +50%), with wind-related climatic drivers exerting the dominant influence, particularly where wind and solar resources are strongly complementary. More than 20% of planned near-term green hydrogen projects are exposed to a risk of cost escalation. Our results highlight an urgent need to integrate long-term climate impacts into the planning of green hydrogen projects. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Socioeconomic scenarios Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy management Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy policy Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SI.pdf Supplementary Information for "Climate-driven impacts in renewable resources alter green hydrogen supply" Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8356734","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":570199995,"identity":"f4a6474a-3333-467c-be2b-a16176e625c2","order_by":0,"name":"Wenying 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