Stranded human and produced capital in a net-zero transition

Abstract The pace of the net-zero transition required to meet the Paris Agreement objectives puts the value of existing carbon-dependent capital at risk of premature depreciation.1–3 A policy debate has emerged over whether such substantial financial loss affects market valuation and stability.4–6 Here, we quantify the current value of existing global human and produced capital, sector by sector, and compare the rate at which it naturally depreciates with that at which it would be required to depreciate to achieve climate targets. Comparison allows us to determine the human and produced capital value at risk across the economy by sector. We find that stopping the production of carbon intensive capital and the training of carbon intensive occupations in 2020 allows a better than 50 percent chance to achieve a 2°C target. However, achieving net-zero in 2050 implies capital value at risk approaching 50 T$, three quarters of which is human capital. We conclude that intervention in both the financial and educational systems may be warranted in order to reduce these risks, where training a workforce for occupations that may soon cease to exist could be avoided.