The evolution tendency and driving factors of carbon emissions in Qingdao City

Abstract In this paper, we analyzed the evolution tendency of carbon emissions using the coefficient of variation, the Sen’s slope method and the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, and explored the influence of socioeconomic and environmental factors on carbon emissions by Geodetector, in Qingdao City. The results shown that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the area with moderate variation (0.1<Cv0) of carbon emissions accounted for 73.8% and 80.8% of the whole city, respectively. The maximum value of carbon emissions increased from 0.66 million to 2.05 million tons, and the average value increased by 58.86 tons/a. The area with the value of carbon emissions higher than 2000t/km2 increased yearly. (2) The carbon emissions decreased gradually from the urban center to the periphery. The urban area had the largest variation degree (Cv=0.32) and a significant growth trend of carbon emissions, while Laixi, Jiaozhou and Pingdu were minor. (3) The socioeconomic factors (GDP density, population density and floor area ratio) had a significant impact on the spatio-temporal differentiation of carbon emissions in Qingdao, and the influence of environmental factors (temperature, elevation, land use type and slope) was weak. The interaction of GDP density and population density had the explanatory power of 81.9% on the spatial distribution of carbon emissions. The research indicated that the carbon emissions increased yearly and existed significant spatio-temporal difference in Qingdao city.