Analyzing Driving Forces of China’s Carbon Emissions From 1997-2040 and the Potential Emission Reduction Path: Through Decomposition and Scenario Analyses

Analyzing Driving Forces of China’s Carbon Emissions From 1997-2040 and the Potential Emission Reduction Path: Through Decomposition and Scenario Analyses | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Analyzing Driving Forces of China’s Carbon Emissions From 1997-2040 and the Potential Emission Reduction Path: Through Decomposition and Scenario Analyses Ce Song, Tao Zhao, Juan Wang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-560303/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 Nov, 2021 Read the published version in Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy → Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract To assess the evolution trend of China's carbon emissions (CEs) and related driving factors, this paper used scenario analysis to predict China's CEs from 2017 to 2040 at the industrial level. Then, LMDI decomposition model was applied to evaluate the driving forces of CEs changes during 1997-2040. Finally, the ST-LMDI model was used to explore the CEs reduction potential and the potential reduction path at provincial level. The results showed that (1) as the reduction of energy intensity cannot offset the growth of industrial scale, the CEs of all industries have shown an increasing trend from 1997 to 2017; (2) In the current policy scenario, China's CEs cannot reach the peak before 2040. And only in the sustainable development scenario, the CEs of the three industries will all reach the peaks before 2030. And the development of non-fossil energy will reduce CEs by more than 30%; (3) Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Heilongjiang are key provinces and improving energy efficiency of the secondary industry is a potential way to promote CEs reduction. Environmental Policy carbon emissions decomposition model scenario analysis provincial analysis Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Full Text Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF. Supplementary Files GraphicalAbstract.docx 2017emissionsprovincial.xlsx 2017energyconsumptionprovincial.xlsx 2017nonfossil.xlsx 2017populationGDP.xlsx Emissionssector20302040.xlsx TPEDsector20302040.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 Nov, 2021 Read the published version in Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy → Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 15 Aug, 2021 Reviewers invited by journal 15 Jun, 2021 Editor assigned by journal 25 May, 2021 First submitted to journal 24 May, 2021 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-560303","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":30155945,"identity":"530ae3f3-cb8b-4617-b19a-0bd745f576ae","order_by":0,"name":"Ce Song","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAzElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBADOQaGA0CKjQQtxjwka0nsAVPEaOFvb2D+8HFHbfp+xjMGDB/KDjPwz27Ar0XizAE2yZlnjuf2MJwxYJxx7jCDxJ0D+LUYSCSwMfO2HQNrATIOg0QIaJF/wPwZqCWdB6TlL1FaJBgYpHnbahLAWhiJ0SJxJgHol7YDhj0HjhUc7DmXziNxg4AW/vYDwBBrq5Nnn3F444MfZdZy/DMIaAFq+gAkDgPtOwCOTB5C6mGgDqi1gVjFo2AUjIJRMNIAAIYKQVWcgCP8AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4148-6185","institution":"Tianjin University","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ce","middleName":"","lastName":"Song","suffix":""},{"id":30155946,"identity":"36c5602e-d290-457b-9a61-b513a6efe425","order_by":1,"name":"Tao Zhao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tianjin University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tao","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":30155947,"identity":"059c475f-7f45-4cd9-8e70-76fe7460f4c3","order_by":2,"name":"Juan Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tianjin University of Finance and Economics","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Juan","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2021-05-26 02:37:42","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-560303/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-560303/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-021-02240-7","type":"published","date":"2021-11-26T07:46:25+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":9891920,"identity":"46a30636-3494-469e-ad2b-8ca5e7afbc3f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-06-02 15:11:43","extension":"jpg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":46410,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"China’s CEs during 1997-2017","description":"","filename":"Fig1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-560303/v1/321df5c92d5abe5d0d549d97.jpg"},{"id":9891917,"identity":"b403b8d3-e6d0-44eb-af3a-d721d31ebb63","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-06-02 15:11:43","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":227715,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Decomposition result of historical CEs during 1997-2017 (a) Primary Sector; (b) Secondary Sector; (c) Tertiary Sector; (d) National Total","description":"","filename":"Fig2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-560303/v1/eb141c429cc17d613a8ffabd.jpg"},{"id":9891494,"identity":"2098df38-12a3-4596-9e4e-16c1f93d2ea4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-06-02 15:08:43","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":287847,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"China’s CEs during 1997-2040 in different sector. 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