Green–Blue Corridors to Enhance Biodiversity Connectivity under Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Western European Countries (2015–2025)

Green–Blue Corridors to Enhance Biodiversity Connectivity under Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Western European Countries (2015–2025) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Green–Blue Corridors to Enhance Biodiversity Connectivity under Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Western European Countries (2015–2025) Sid Ahmed ZENAGUI This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8789640/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change and rapid urbanization are intensifying habitat fragmentation and thermal stress across European landscapes, threatening both biodiversity and human well-being. Green–blue corridors have emerged as a key nature-based solution to enhance ecological connectivity while mitigating climate impacts, yet comparative, long-term assessments of their effectiveness remain limited. This study provides a comprehensive cross-country analysis of green–blue corridor performance in Western Europe over the period 2015–2025, integrating remote sensing, ecological connectivity modelling, and artificial intelligence techniques. Using satellite-derived indicators of land surface temperature and vegetation condition, combined with graph-based connectivity metrics and machine learning models, we evaluate the dual role of corridors in supporting biodiversity and reducing climate stress. Results reveal that corridors significantly improve ecological connectivity and generate measurable cooling effects, with land surface temperatures inside corridors up to 2.5°C lower than in adjacent urban areas. A positive and statistically significant relationship between connectivity and vegetation health further confirms the buffering capacity of well-designed corridor networks. Cluster analysis identifies distinct corridor–climate typologies across countries, highlighting the influence of climatic context, urban pressure, and governance frameworks on corridor effectiveness. High-performing green–blue networks exhibit synergistic benefits for biodiversity conservation and climate adaptation, while fragmented or climate-constrained systems deliver more limited outcomes. The findings underscore the importance of integrating green–blue corridors into spatial planning and climate policy as strategic adaptation infrastructures. By offering a scalable analytical framework and evidence-based policy insights, this study contributes to advancing climate-resilient landscape planning and supports the mainstreaming of nature-based solutions in European environmental governance. Climate Analysis and Modeling Green–blue corridors Ecological connectivity Climate change adaptation Urban heat mitigation Biodiversity resilience Machine learning Nature-based solutions Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8789640","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":585902586,"identity":"cc91ccbd-5a07-4180-8908-bba1691d03a7","order_by":0,"name":"Sid Ahmed ZENAGUI","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-5333-5106","institution":"University of Ain Temouchent ALGERIA","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sid","middleName":"Ahmed","lastName":"ZENAGUI","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-04 18:42:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8789640/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8789640/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101944183,"identity":"42670590-dd95-45b5-befb-7c47f3edaea4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-05 09:50:11","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1537350,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Green.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8789640/v1_covered_49c15c8c-51fd-49a7-b1fe-7e8f195ebf0c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eGreen–Blue Corridors to Enhance Biodiversity Connectivity under Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Western European Countries (2015–2025)\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Green–blue corridors, Ecological connectivity, Climate change adaptation, Urban heat mitigation, Biodiversity resilience, Machine learning, Nature-based solutions","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8789640/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8789640/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eClimate change and rapid urbanization are intensifying habitat fragmentation and thermal stress across European landscapes, threatening both biodiversity and human well-being. Green\u0026ndash;blue corridors have emerged as a key nature-based solution to enhance ecological connectivity while mitigating climate impacts, yet comparative, long-term assessments of their effectiveness remain limited. This study provides a comprehensive cross-country analysis of green\u0026ndash;blue corridor performance in Western Europe over the period 2015\u0026ndash;2025, integrating remote sensing, ecological connectivity modelling, and artificial intelligence techniques.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing satellite-derived indicators of land surface temperature and vegetation condition, combined with graph-based connectivity metrics and machine learning models, we evaluate the dual role of corridors in supporting biodiversity and reducing climate stress. Results reveal that corridors significantly improve ecological connectivity and generate measurable cooling effects, with land surface temperatures inside corridors up to 2.5\u0026deg;C lower than in adjacent urban areas. A positive and statistically significant relationship between connectivity and vegetation health further confirms the buffering capacity of well-designed corridor networks.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCluster analysis identifies distinct corridor\u0026ndash;climate typologies across countries, highlighting the influence of climatic context, urban pressure, and governance frameworks on corridor effectiveness. High-performing green\u0026ndash;blue networks exhibit synergistic benefits for biodiversity conservation and climate adaptation, while fragmented or climate-constrained systems deliver more limited outcomes. The findings underscore the importance of integrating green\u0026ndash;blue corridors into spatial planning and climate policy as strategic adaptation infrastructures.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBy offering a scalable analytical framework and evidence-based policy insights, this study contributes to advancing climate-resilient landscape planning and supports the mainstreaming of nature-based solutions in European environmental governance.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Green–Blue Corridors to Enhance Biodiversity Connectivity under Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Western European Countries (2015–2025)","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-05 07:27:00","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8789640/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"b5e17e5c-af3f-49c8-aacd-3c0d1e01b3be","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 5th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":62364286,"name":"Climate Analysis and Modeling"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-05T07:27:01+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-05 07:27:00","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8789640","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8789640","identity":"rs-8789640","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}