Modeling COVID-19 Aerosol Transmission in Primary Schools

Schools must balance public health, education, and social risks associated with returning to in-person learning. These risks are compounded by the ongoing uncertainty about vaccine availability and uptake for children under 12 years of age. In this paper, we show how the risk of infections that result directly from in-class aerosol transmission within an elementary school population can be estimated in order to compare the effects of different countermeasures. We compare the effectiveness of these countermeasures in reducing transmission including required masking at three levels of mask effectiveness, improving room airflow exchange rates, weekly testing of the students, and lunch partitioning. Our results show that multiple layers of interventions are necessary to keep in-class infections relatively low. These results can inform school administrators about how these interventions can help manage COVID-19 spread within their own elementary school populations.