Exploring the Trade-Off Between Environmental Quality and Economic Welfare: Analyzing the EPC and EKC Hypotheses in the UK with a Focus on Democratization and Fossil Fuel Use

Exploring the Trade-Off Between Environmental Quality and Economic Welfare: Analyzing the EPC and EKC Hypotheses in the UK with a Focus on Democratization and Fossil Fuel Use | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Exploring the Trade-Off Between Environmental Quality and Economic Welfare: Analyzing the EPC and EKC Hypotheses in the UK with a Focus on Democratization and Fossil Fuel Use İlkay Güler, Mustafa Naimoğlu, Orhan Şimşek, Zafer Adalı, Sefa Özbek This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5860654/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Carbon neutrality achievement, mitigating and reverting environmental degradations, and increasing renewable energy projections have been among the most mentioned and received the attention of the government's agendas. Nearly all documents and policy actions have been designed and highlighted under environmental-related issues. However, the considered policy actions have been considered tough decisions involving a trade-off between environmental quality and economic welfare. The Environmental Phillips Curve has been recently introduced under the insight into the trade-off, and the EPC implies that environmental degradations can be blessed at the cost of high unemployment. The study strives to scrutinize the EPC and EKC hypotheses by considering the effect of Democratization, quality of government, and fossil use on CO 2 emissions in the UK. Within this context, the ARDL approach, the FMOLS, and DOLS estimators are performed on data covering the period between 1990 and 2021. The result of the study discloses that the EPC hypothesis is not verified, whereas the EKC hypothesis holds for the UK. Besides, quality of government and Democratization play a pivotal role in mitigating CO 2 emissions, while fossil fuels impair the air quality of the UK. The evidence is that policymakers in improved democratic institutions can implement a better performance of providing policy directions for mitigating environmental degradation, and the country with achieved compositions and techniques effects can implement pro-environmental policies without the cost of economic welfare. Carbon Management Fossil Energy Use Economic Growth EKC Hypothesis EPC Hypothesis Unemployment Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5860654","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":405609211,"identity":"a28a2bf3-ea61-4475-aabd-b608d8609af2","order_by":0,"name":"İlkay Güler","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABCklEQVRIie3PMWrDMBSAYakCZZHjNcWlvYJDQFBq7IN0kTA4U/YMGVQKzhJygx6ha2cVgSdRr4Yuyt4h0MW0GSq7g6fIa6H6F+uBPp4MgM/3B8MT3H+vAEBSsjixZ/ggnQT9EmKP3Jh10RHhJGAgZDE3WvWTk0wR5p/kS5EwknTGyzp93iq7ZZPcOx6momCvyOWeFZa85y+aW1IVK3GWTEQU7BSJNah6QqUlUCgXefzuSKZhaclbTuvDGMFVRFq7hSAUMy1T2oxuwcXtk1iSmcbQsHXOaGO3MMe/3GzLRfNxursOd+HxtY3TjNbLgzlukrOk6yIoh4H3N5njehdsT8OQjVz2+Xy+f9gPzz5ggcYmMuYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"İlkay","middleName":"","lastName":"Güler","suffix":""},{"id":405609212,"identity":"457d573d-4fd6-4d1b-bd7b-41eeeee339d0","order_by":1,"name":"Mustafa Naimoğlu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bingöl University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mustafa","middleName":"","lastName":"Naimoğlu","suffix":""},{"id":405609213,"identity":"c0d82817-9b5a-4993-ac48-8c57bf4de0aa","order_by":2,"name":"Orhan Şimşek","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Artvin Coruh University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Orhan","middleName":"","lastName":"Şimşek","suffix":""},{"id":405609214,"identity":"b2126143-eb9d-482d-8dce-4f13b094be40","order_by":3,"name":"Zafer Adalı","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Artvin Coruh University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zafer","middleName":"","lastName":"Adalı","suffix":""},{"id":405609215,"identity":"e423857a-4ade-4f1d-89e1-0ae3e419683d","order_by":4,"name":"Sefa Özbek","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tarsus University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sefa","middleName":"","lastName":"Özbek","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-01-19 17:08:04","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5860654/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5860654/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":75147029,"identity":"b71e3292-f0c4-4441-a1f4-dc76dfc5f232","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-31 07:16:42","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":575597,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"19012025manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5860654/v1_covered_8c0dd84e-2fb7-4309-9f0e-3385057cc397.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Exploring the Trade-Off Between Environmental Quality and Economic Welfare: Analyzing the EPC and EKC Hypotheses in the UK with a Focus on Democratization and Fossil Fuel Use","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Carbon Management, Fossil Energy Use, Economic Growth, EKC Hypothesis, EPC Hypothesis, Unemployment","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5860654/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5860654/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eCarbon neutrality achievement, mitigating and reverting environmental degradations, and increasing renewable energy projections have been among the most mentioned and received the attention of the government's agendas. 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