Context-Dependent Probability Estimation and its Neurocomputational Substrates

ABSTRACT Many decisions rely on how we evaluate potential outcomes associated with the options under consideration and estimate their corresponding probabilities of occurrence. Outcome valuation is subjective as it requires consulting internal preferences and is sensitive to context. In contrast, probability estimation requires extracting statistics from the environment and therefore imposes unique challenges to the decision maker. Here we show that probability estimation, like outcome valuation, is subject to context effects that bias probability estimates away from other stimuli present in the same context. However, unlike valuation, these context effects appeared to be scaled by estimated uncertainty, which is largest at intermediate probabilities. BOLD imaging showed that patterns of multivoxel activity in dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) predicted individual differences in context effects on probability estimate. These results establish VMPFC as the neurocomputational substrate shared between valuation and probability estimation and highlight the additional involvement of dACC that can be uniquely attributed to probability estimation. As probability estimation is a required component of computational accounts from sensory inference to higher cognition, the context effects found here may affect a wide array of cognitive computations. Highlights Context impacts subjective estimates on reward probability – Stimuli carrying greater variance are more strongly affected by other stimuli present in the same context This phenomenon can be explained by reference-dependent computations that are gated by reward variance Multivoxel patterns of dACC and VMPFC activity predicts individual differences in context effect on probability estimate