Seismic activity characteristics of the Chinese continent based on a ‘hybrid’ probability forecasting model

Seismic activity characteristics of the Chinese continent based on a ‘hybrid’ probability forecasting model | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Seismic activity characteristics of the Chinese continent based on a ‘hybrid’ probability forecasting model Yong Ma, Jinmeng Bi, Demiao Dong This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4133756/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In the research on Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), a crucial aspect involves constructing a predictive model capable of assessing its efficacy while aligning with the regional seismic activity characteristics. This study delineates Chinese continent, characterized by complex seismotectonic, into six distinct zones: Northeast, North China, South China, North-South Zone, Xinjiang, and Xizang. Three earthquake probability forecasting models-namely, the relative intensity (RI) model, the moment ratio (MR) model, and the simple smoothing (Triple-S) model are employed. Utilizing seismic catalog data from the China Earthquake Networks Center dating back to 1970, with a ‘anomaly learning period’ spanning 10 years and a step length of 1 year, a retrospective sliding forecasting analysis is conducted for earthquakes of magnitude Ms5.0 or greater over varying intervals, such as 3 years and 5 years. The efficacy of the forecasting models is assessed through the Molchan chart method and T-test method. Model parameters are fine-tuned, determining the optimal computational parameters for the three forecasting models. A composite probability forecasting model, adaptable across different time scales and tailored to the seismic activity characteristics of Chinese continent, is developed. An analysis of seismic activity over the past decade provides insights into the current landscape. This analysis highlights that the high-risk areas identified through the composite model closely align with previous findings and correlate well with actual earthquake occurrences in Chinese continent in 2023. Chinese continent ‘hybrid’ probability forecasting model effectiveness evaluation characteristics of seismic activity Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4133756","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":282033134,"identity":"ecfcd68b-aab0-4d8f-8fd1-dbf015dab2a1","order_by":0,"name":"Yong Ma","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAyklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCCBAYGOX725gMHPvwgQYuxZM+xxIMze0iwKHHDjRzjwxxsRCjVbT/7TOLhDgbGhjNnPhxm4GGQ5xc7gF+L2Zl0M4nEMwzMjO29Gw4XWDAYzpydQEDLgTRmg8Q2BjZmnrMbDs/gYUgwuE1Iy/lnYC08bBI5Dw7zsBGj5UYa4wOgFgkeiRwGYrU8A2mRMJDgOWYADGQJIvxyPo3h4M82m/r9x5sff/jww0aeX5qAFiiQwGCMglEwCkbBKKAEAAAoKkXnGR78/gAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9161-3077","institution":"Tianjin Earthquake Agency","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yong","middleName":"","lastName":"Ma","suffix":""},{"id":282033135,"identity":"c41788a6-93e2-40ff-ab83-a3bf3ddee263","order_by":1,"name":"Jinmeng Bi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tianjin Earthquake Agency","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jinmeng","middleName":"","lastName":"Bi","suffix":""},{"id":282033136,"identity":"cc65e2a9-d7d4-43e4-9914-00f123b7cb4d","order_by":2,"name":"Demiao Dong","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tianjin Earthquake Agency","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Demiao","middleName":"","lastName":"Dong","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-20 03:13:59","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4133756/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4133756/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":56410883,"identity":"4e89b9dc-9c56-49ba-a13a-e22b2150f7b0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-13 20:23:27","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1178361,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"TheChinesecontinentforecastingmodel.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4133756/v1_covered_21e123d9-8840-4170-b385-3243ba9ee9ae.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Seismic activity characteristics of the Chinese continent based on a ‘hybrid’ probability forecasting model","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Chinese continent, ‘hybrid’ probability forecasting model, effectiveness evaluation, characteristics of seismic activity","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4133756/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4133756/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn the research on Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), a crucial aspect involves constructing a predictive model capable of assessing its efficacy while aligning with the regional seismic activity characteristics. 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