Effect of high- and low-pressure circulation patterns above mid-latitudes on the incidence of SARS-COV-2 across wider European sector during early spring 2020

Abstract The presented paper evaluates SARS-CoV-2 in relation to high-, neutral and low- pressure zones above mid-latitudes (North Atlantic Oscillation/NAO and Arctic Oscillation/AO phases) and simultaneous effects of 8 meteorological elements across Europe and its wider region during early spring 2020. Data of national daily incidence of SARS-CoV-2 (for 86 countries and dependent territories) were correlated with daily values of 8 meteorological elements in 137 representative cities for 3 periods before an incidence day corresponding to incubation time of SARS-CoV-2. Period 0-9th day represented negative, period 5-14th day neutral and period 10-19th day positive NAO/AO pattern. Incubation time in last period was shifted, because some cases were linked to longer waiting for results of testing or in later course of SARS-CoV-2. Patterns linked with high-, neutral and low- pressure zones above mid-latitudes were outlined. Results have shown that, during the high-pressure pattern above mid-latitudes, lower precipitation, higher pressure, weaker wind, higher sunshine, higher diurnal temperature range (higher maximum and lower minimum temperatures) were very unfavorable for incidence of SARS-CoV-2 (more cases) and that, during the low-pressure pattern above mid-latitudes, lower pressure, higher wind and less than NAO+ lower precipitation, higher sunshine and higher diurnal temperature range (mainly higher maximum temperatures) were unfavorable. For comparison these results were outputted with circulation conditions NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. During NAO+, precipitation and wind/minimum temperatures, precipitation and pressure; during NAO-, minimum temperatures, wind and sunshine/maximum, minimum and average temperatures, precipitation, sunshine and snow cover have the most simultaneous same/opposite effects.