Influence of Input Motion Uncertainty in Developing Slope-Specific Seismic Fragility Curves Based on Nonlinear Finite Element Simulations

Influence of Input Motion Uncertainty in Developing Slope-Specific Seismic Fragility Curves Based on Nonlinear Finite Element Simulations | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Influence of Input Motion Uncertainty in Developing Slope-Specific Seismic Fragility Curves Based on Nonlinear Finite Element Simulations Youngkyu Cho, Byungmin Kim This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4179959/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In the seismic fragility assessment for geotechnical structures, the selection of input motion set for nonlinear dynamic finite element (FE) analyses has solely been based on the methods used in an incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), despite methods adopted in structural engineering for cloud analysis (CA), and multiple stripe analysis (MSA). This study investigates uncertainties in the seismic fragility curve of slopes arising from input motion sets used in nonlinear dynamic FE analysis to develop a probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM). We consider a FE slope model and four sets of input motions based on CA (Set 1: 632 unscaled ground motion records), IDA (Set 2: random sampling with four sample sizes of 7, 14, 28, and 50 from Set 1, scaled to five PGA values, iterated 20 times), and MSA [Sets 3 and 4: different suites of ground motion records at five PGA levels spaced equally on linear and logarithmic scale, respectively, from Set 1, considering as many records as possible (maximum sample size) and 20 iterations of random sampling for three sample sizes of 3, 6, and 9 out of the maximum sample size]. Comparisons of the seismic fragility curves from Sets 2, 3, and 4 relative to the curves from Set 1 reveal that Set 4 (with a sample size of 9, involving 45 analyses) is more computationally efficient than Set 2 (with a sample size of 50, totaling 250 analyses) and would yield the curve stochastically closer to the one from Set 1. It is worthwhile to consider the input motion set based on the MSA with PGA levels evenly distributed on a logarithmic scale than the IDA-based set when compiling large numbers of ground motion records is limited. Incremental Dynamic Analysis Multiple Stripe Analysis Cloud Analysis Seismic Fragility of Slopes Finite Element Simulations Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 01 May, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 01 May, 2024 Editor invited by journal 30 Mar, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 29 Mar, 2024 First submitted to journal 27 Mar, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4179959","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":297600556,"identity":"ce02c84d-6c64-49c5-86c4-3b4d18669eb0","order_by":0,"name":"Youngkyu Cho","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYNCCAwwM/AheApFaJBuYSdVicIBYLQbHe8wefjlzOHHzjfyDj3lq6hj42XMM8Gs5c8bcWObG4cRtN5KZDWccO8wg2fOGgJYbOWbSEh/AWtgkPrAdAIkQqWXzjGT2Hwn/6hjsidEi+QHosA0SyWwMH9uYGQwkCGiRPHOsTJrhTLrxjDOPjSVn9h3mkTjzrACvFr7jzdskfxyzlu1vT3z4medbnRx/e/IGvFoUDjAwMPMwNMMFePAqBwH5BgYGxh8MdQQVjoJRMApGwQgGADt2TrGIsaIqAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7873-1338","institution":"Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Youngkyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Cho","suffix":""},{"id":297600557,"identity":"5bae32d7-088c-43d7-b8d8-17e8fb6fb0df","order_by":1,"name":"Byungmin Kim","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3290-7163","institution":"Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Byungmin","middleName":"","lastName":"Kim","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-28 06:26:34","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4179959/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4179959/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07903-y","type":"published","date":"2026-02-02T15:58:34+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102234268,"identity":"040f8470-65fa-4296-bafa-f53314bf63f4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-09 16:08:47","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1454879,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4179959/v1_covered_e1f58d9c-3abc-4e97-9614-a2adca690a80.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eInfluence of Input Motion Uncertainty in Developing Slope-Specific Seismic Fragility Curves Based on Nonlinear Finite Element Simulations\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Incremental Dynamic Analysis, Multiple Stripe Analysis, Cloud Analysis, Seismic Fragility of Slopes, Finite Element Simulations","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4179959/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4179959/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn the seismic fragility assessment for geotechnical structures, the selection of input motion set for nonlinear dynamic finite element (FE) analyses has solely been based on the methods used in an incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), despite methods adopted in structural engineering for cloud analysis (CA), and multiple stripe analysis (MSA). 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Comparisons of the seismic fragility curves from Sets 2, 3, and 4 relative to the curves from Set 1 reveal that Set 4 (with a sample size of 9, involving 45 analyses) is more computationally efficient than Set 2 (with a sample size of 50, totaling 250 analyses) and would yield the curve stochastically closer to the one from Set 1. 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