A simple model for the evolution of temperature-dependent sex determination explains the temperature sensitivity of embryonic mortality in imperiled reptiles

A common reptile conservation strategy involves artificial incubation of embryos and release of hatchlings or juveniles into wild populations. Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) occurs in most chelonians, permitting conservation managers to bias sex ratios towards females by incubating embryos at high temperatures, ultimately allowing the introduction of more egg-bearing individuals into populations. Here, we revisit classic sex allocation theory and hypothesize that TSD evolved in some reptile groups (specifically, chelonians and crocodilians) because male fitness is more sensitive to condition (general health, vigor) than female fitness. It follows that males benefit more than females from incubation environments that confer high-quality phenotypes, and hence high-condition individuals. We predict that female-producing temperatures, which comprise relatively high incubation temperatures in chelonians and crocodilians, are relatively stressful for embryos and subsequent life stages. We synthesize data from 28 studies to investigate how constant temperature incubation affects embryonic mortality in chelonians with TSD. We find several lines of evidence suggesting that female-producing temperatures, especially relatively warm temperatures, are more stressful than male-producing temperatures, and we find some evidence that pivotal temperatures (TPiv, the temperature that produces a 1:1 sex ratio) exhibit a correlated evolution with embryonic thermal tolerance. If patterns of temperature-sensitive embryonic mortality are also indicative of chronic thermal stress that occurs post hatching, then conservation programs may benefit from incubating eggs close to species-specific TPivs, thus avoiding high-temperature incubation. Indeed, our models predict that, on average, a sex ratio of more than 75% females can generally be achieved by incubating eggs only 1°C above TPiv. Of equal importance, we provide insight into the enigmatic evolution of TSD in chelonians, by providing support to the hypothesis that TSD evolution is related to the quality of the phenotype conferred by incubation temperature, with males produced in high-quality incubation environments. Lay summary We analyze data on embryonic mortality under constant-temperature incubation for 15 species of chelonians with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Mortality is lowest near species-specific pivotal temperatures (Tpiv) but increases rapidly above TPiv, consistent with a theory that explains the adaptive significance of TSD. Conservation managers should incubate embryos near TPiv.